AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over DBD overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
DBD
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated
DBD has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
DBD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
DBD's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
DBD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 0.7x | $1.54 | -97% |
| Forward | 9.8x | $54.75 | — |
| Fair | 22x | $44.94 | -18% |
| Current | 26x | $54.75 | — |
| Expensive | 32x | $67.83 | +24% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
DBD's PE is in its fair range at 26x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 9.8x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over DBD on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
DBD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect DBD's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
DBD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.56 | +166% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +53% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.01 | +$3.35 |
| Q1 2026 | $2.90 | +$3.17 |
| Q4 2025 | $2.54 | +$2.98 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.37 | +$1.37 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.34 | -101% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.27 | -101% |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.44 | -101% |
DBD has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over DBD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
DBD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $994.3M | +5.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $930.8M | +1.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $891.8M | +6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $945.2M | +2% |
| Q2 2025 | $915.2M | -2.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $841.1M | -6.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $988.9M | -4.6% |
DBD's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $994M last quarter, up 5.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.9% | -3.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.2% | 0 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.7% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.5% | +3.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.8% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.1% | -1.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.5% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.2% | -1.2 points |
DBD has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
DBD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$47.4M | -227% |
| Q2 2026 | -$13.6M | -145% |
| Q1 2026 | $31.7M | +102% |
| Q4 2025 | $217.5M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.4M | +$52.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $30.1M | +$38.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $15.7M | +$39.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $196.2M | +26% |
DBD has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
DBD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2% | -700K shares |
| 1 year | -6.5% | -2.4M shares |
| 3 years | -7.9% | -3M shares |
| 5 years | -56% | -43.7M shares |
| Available history | -55% | -42.2M shares |
DBD has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $33.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $60.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $60.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $51.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $39.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $30.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $9.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $2.3M |
DBD spent $206M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 152% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
DBD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.8x | Moderate |
DBD's net debt is about 2.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
DBD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.4 | Oversold |
DBD's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 11 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
DBD PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | DBD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 28x | 6% below |
| PE % | 61 | 25 | 36 pts above |
DBD is trading at 26x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has stronger trend alignment. AAOI is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus DBD above 0 of 4.
DBD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $61.8 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $69.7 | 21% below |
| 50 week MA | $73.3 | 25% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.4 | 12% below |
DBD is in a downtrend: it's below all four of its weekly moving averages, and 12% below its 100-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over DBD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
DBD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $20.1 | $29.0 | +44% |
| 2024 | $29.0 | $42.9 | +48% |
| 2025 | $42.9 | $69.3 | +61% |
| 2026 YTD | $69.3 | $54.8 | -21% |
DBD has finished every year since 2023 higher, and it's down 21% so far in 2026.