AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over ADTN overall, supported by stronger modeled upside.
ADTN
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.
ADTN has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ADTN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
ADTN's revenue and profitability are currently stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
ADTN PE Valuation
ADTN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over ADTN on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
ADTN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ADTN's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
ADTN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.31 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.26 | +$0.82 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.28 | +$1.04 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.39 | +$1.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.52 | +$5.17 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.08 | +$5.43 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.32 | +$5.83 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.71 | +$5.31 |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.69 | -$2.28 |
ADTN has the edge over AAOI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over ADTN on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
ADTN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $281.2M | +0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $281.1M | +6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $286.1M | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $291.6M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $279.4M | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $265.1M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $247.7M | +9.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $242.9M | +7.7% |
ADTN's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $281M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | -3.6% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2% | +3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5% | +8.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1% | +9.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | -5% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.6% | +149 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.9% | +9.8 points |
ADTN has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
ADTN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$30.2M | -819% |
| Q2 2026 | $17M | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.2M | -86% |
| Q4 2025 | $30.6M | +$31.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $4.2M | -82% |
| Q2 2025 | $27.5M | +604% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.8M | +54% |
| Q4 2024 | -$895K | +$24.8M |
ADTN has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
ADTN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +274K shares |
| 1 year | +1.8% | +1.4M shares |
| 3 years | +3.6% | +2.8M shares |
| 5 years | +64% | +31.8M shares |
| Available history | +70% | +33.4M shares |
ADTN has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ADTN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 6.5x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 16.1x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 39.3x | High |
| Q2 2022 | -7.4x | Net Cash |
ADTN's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.5 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
ADTN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 31.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 9.6 | Oversold |
ADTN's weekly RSI is 32 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ADTN PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ADTN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
ADTN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over ADTN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ADTN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6.22 | 22% below |
| 20 week MA | $7.96 | 39% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $9.73 | 50% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.95 | 46% below |
ADTN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 46% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over ADTN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ADTN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.74 | $15.0 | +54% |
| 2021 | $15.0 | $22.0 | +47% |
| 2022 | $22.0 | $18.8 | -15% |
| 2023 | $18.8 | $7.34 | -61% |
| 2024 | $7.34 | $8.21 | +12% |
| 2025 | $8.21 | $8.75 | +6.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.75 | $4.86 | -44% |
ADTN is down 44% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.