AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over ADEA overall, supported by stronger modeled upside.
ADEA
Adeia Inc.
ADEA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ADEA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
ADEA's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
ADEA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $10.97 | -34% |
| Forward | 13x | $16.63 | — |
| Current | 16x | $16.63 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $23.29 | +40% |
| Expensive | 31x | $31.44 | +89% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ADEA's PE is in its cheap range at 16x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 13x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over ADEA on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
ADEA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Decline | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ADEA's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
ADEA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.32 | +28% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.03 | +58% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.09 | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | +65% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.99 | +74% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.65 | +76% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.74 | +80% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.66 | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.57 | -5% |
ADEA has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over ADEA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
ADEA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $80.2M | -8.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $96.1M | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $104.8M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $182.6M | +53% |
| Q3 2025 | $87.3M | +1.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $85.7M | -1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $87.7M | +5.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $119.2M | +37% |
ADEA's revenue is growing: $80M last quarter, down 8.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | -20 points |
| Q2 2026 | 26% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 33% | +7.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 60% | +11 points |
| Q3 2025 | 31% | -1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | -7.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 26% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 48% | +22 points |
ADEA has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
ADEA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4M | -76% |
| Q2 2026 | $54.1M | +136% |
| Q1 2026 | $58.1M | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $59.4M | -44% |
| Q3 2025 | $17M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.9M | -0.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $56.9M | -14% |
| Q4 2024 | $106.9M | +185% |
ADEA has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
ADEA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -144K shares |
| 1 year | +1.3% | +1.4M shares |
| 3 years | +1.2% | +1.3M shares |
| 5 years | -71% | -282M shares |
| Available history | +128% | +64.1M shares |
ADEA has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $10M |
| Q1 2026 | $10M |
| Q4 2025 | $10M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3M |
| Q4 2023 | — |
ADEA spent $30M buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ADEA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 2.0x | Healthy |
ADEA's net debt is about 1.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.1 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
ADEA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 33.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 8.9 | Oversold |
ADEA's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 9 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ADEA PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ADEA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 28x | 42% below |
| PE % | 20 | 35 | 15 pts below |
ADEA is trading at 16x earnings, a 42% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
ADEA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $21.3 | 22% below |
| 20 week MA | $24.7 | 33% below |
| 50 week MA | $23.8 | 30% below |
| 100 week MA | $18.9 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $14.8 | 12% above |
ADEA has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 12% above its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over ADEA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ADEA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $4.86 | $5.50 | +13% |
| 2021 | $5.50 | $5.13 | -6.7% |
| 2022 | $5.13 | $9.48 | +85% |
| 2023 | $9.48 | $12.4 | +31% |
| 2024 | $12.4 | $13.8 | +11% |
| 2025 | $13.8 | $16.9 | +23% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.9 | $16.6 | -1.8% |
ADEA has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 1.8% so far in 2026.