AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
AAL has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has the edge over AAL overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
AAL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
AAL's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
AAL PE Valuation
AAL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAL's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
RDW has the edge over AAL on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
AAL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.73 | -176% |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.49 | -154% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.31 | -69% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.17 | -86% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.96 | +118% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.90 | +$1.06 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.00 | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.24 | +2.5% |
AAL has the edge over RDW on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
AAL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $16.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $16.7B | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.9B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $14B | +2.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.7B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.4B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.6B | -0.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.7B | +4.6% |
AAL's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $16.3B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7% | -0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.7% | -5.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2% | -5.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.1% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.9% | -1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.1% | -2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.3% | +3.3 points |
AAL has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $109M last quarter, up 5.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AAL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.2B | -$376M |
| Q2 2026 | -$351M | -176% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.4B | +109% |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.9B | -$1.6B |
| Q3 2025 | -$872M | -$681M |
| Q2 2025 | $464M | -2.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.6B | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | -$342M | +$1.9B |
AAL has the edge over RDW on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
AAL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +93K shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +2.3M shares |
| 3 years | +1.3% | +8.6M shares |
| 5 years | -8.1% | -58.4M shares |
| Available history | +52% | +227M shares |
AAL has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2021 | $5M |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | $13M |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | $2M |
| Q1 2020 | $171M |
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
AAL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 9.6x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 7.4x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.3x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 6.8x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 7.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 6.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 6.5x | High |
AAL's net debt is about 9.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 6.8 years a year ago.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
AAL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 28.9 | Neutral |
AAL's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 29 (neutral).
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
AAL PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | AAL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
AAL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.8 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $14.0 | 4.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.8 | 3.3% below |
| 100 week MA | $13.3 | 0.2% below |
| 200 week MA | $13.6 | 1.8% below |
AAL has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
AAL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.4 | $15.7 | -45% |
| 2021 | $15.7 | $18.3 | +17% |
| 2022 | $18.3 | $12.7 | -30% |
| 2023 | $12.7 | $13.7 | +8.1% |
| 2024 | $13.7 | $17.4 | +26% |
| 2025 | $17.4 | $15.4 | -11% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.4 | $13.3 | -14% |
AAL has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 14% so far in 2026.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW has the edge over AAL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.