AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
AAL offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over AAL overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
AAL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
AAL's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAL PE Valuation
AAL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AAL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAL's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over AAL on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
AAL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.73 | -176% |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.49 | -154% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.31 | -69% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.17 | -86% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.96 | +118% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.90 | +$1.06 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.00 | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.24 | +2.5% |
AAL has swung to a loss: it lost $0.73 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over AAL on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $16.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $16.7B | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.9B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $14B | +2.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.7B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.4B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.6B | -0.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.7B | +4.6% |
AAL's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $16.3B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7% | -0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.7% | -5.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2% | -5.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.1% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.9% | -1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.1% | -2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.3% | +3.3 points |
AAL's operating margin was 0.7% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over AAL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.2B | -$376M |
| Q2 2026 | -$351M | -176% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.4B | +109% |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.9B | -$1.6B |
| Q3 2025 | -$872M | -$681M |
| Q2 2025 | $464M | -2.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.6B | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | -$342M | +$1.9B |
AAL has burned cash in most quarters: −$91M over the past year, against $882M the year before.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over AAL on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +93K shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +2.3M shares |
| 3 years | +1.3% | +8.6M shares |
| 5 years | -8.1% | -58.4M shares |
| Available history | +52% | +227M shares |
AAL has 663M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2021 | $5M |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | $13M |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | $2M |
| Q1 2020 | $171M |
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over AAL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
AAL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 9.6x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 7.4x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.3x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 6.8x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 7.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 6.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 6.5x | High |
AAL's net debt is about 9.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 6.8 years a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over AAL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AAL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 28.9 | Neutral |
AAL's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 29 (neutral).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
AAL PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | AAL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
AAL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
AAL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.8 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $14.0 | 4.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.8 | 3.3% below |
| 100 week MA | $13.3 | 0.2% below |
| 200 week MA | $13.6 | 1.8% below |
AAL has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 1.8% below its 200-week average.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over AAL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.4 | $15.7 | -45% |
| 2021 | $15.7 | $18.3 | +17% |
| 2022 | $18.3 | $12.7 | -30% |
| 2023 | $12.7 | $13.7 | +8.1% |
| 2024 | $13.7 | $17.4 | +26% |
| 2025 | $17.4 | $15.4 | -11% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.4 | $13.3 | -14% |
AAL has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 14% so far in 2026.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over AAL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.