Forward Signals

Categorical forward expectations without redistributing source estimates

GET /v1/fundamentals/forward-signals returns coarse bands derived privately from licensed analyst estimates. It never returns estimate values, forward P/E values, high or low estimates, analyst counts, provider names, or estimate dates.

Example

{
  "ticker": "ONON",
  "available": true,
  "bands": {
    "forward_valuation": "deteriorating",
    "forward_valuation_basis": "quarterly_ntm",
    "forward_earnings": "decline",
    "forward_revenue": "growth",
    "forward_profitability": "expanding",
    "forward_profitability_basis": "ebit_margin",
    "consensus_coverage": "limited",
    "consensus_dispersion": "tight",
    "consensus_dispersion_basis": "eps"
  }
}

Canonical Bands

Forward valuation: strongly_improving, improving, stable, deteriorating, strongly_deteriorating. It compares a privately calculated next-12-month P/E with a comparable adjusted trailing-12-month P/E. The categorical basis is quarterly_ntm when four consecutive quarterly estimates are available and annual_blend when FY1 and FY2 are time-weighted instead.

Forward earnings and revenue: strong_growth, growth, stable, decline, strong_decline. Both compare the trailing 12 months with the same next-12-month estimate used by forward valuation. Earnings can also be turning_positive, turning_negative, loss_narrowing, loss_stable, or loss_widening.

Forward profitability: strongly_expanding, expanding, stable, contracting, strongly_contracting.

Consensus coverage: broad, moderate, limited.

Consensus dispersion: tight, moderate, wide.

Methodology

All directional signals use one horizon: the latest four reported quarters compared with the next 12 months. TickerDB sums the next four consecutive quarterly estimates when available; otherwise it constructs a rolling 12-month estimate by weighting FY1 and FY2 for the time remaining in each fiscal year. Forward valuation and earnings use the latest four reported adjusted quarterly EPS events as their trailing basis. Revenue and profitability use four complete reported income-statement quarters.

Profitability compares trailing and forward margins over those same 12-month windows. It prefers EBIT margin and falls back to EBITDA margin only when four complete comparable inputs are available. Missing trailing inputs produce a null band rather than a comparison across different horizons.

Growth and valuation bands use broad 5% and 20% thresholds. When both EPS periods are negative, the earnings signal compares the magnitude of the expected loss and uses a 5% neutral range. Margin bands use 1- and 5-percentage-point thresholds. Coverage and dispersion are deliberately bucketed so the underlying analyst counts and estimate ranges cannot be reconstructed.