VST
Vistra Corp.
VST's fundamentals are strong and it looks cheap: trading at 18x earnings, below its usual 23x. Analysts expect earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
VST Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
VST's profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
VST PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $85.35 | -37% |
| Forward | 14x | $135 | — |
| Current | 18x | $135 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $173 | +29% |
| Expensive | 54x | $402 | +199% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VST's PE is in its fair range at 18x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
VST Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect VST's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
VST Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.71 | +31% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.41 | +172% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.93 | -4.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.98 | -5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.18 | -69% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.72 | -49% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.22 | +357% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.31 | +287% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.00 | +96% |
VST earned $7.41 per share over the past year, up 172% from the year before.
VST Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.3B | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $4B | -5.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.6B | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.6B | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $5B | -21% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.3B | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.9B | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $4B | +31% |
VST's revenue is growing: $6.3B last quarter, up 28% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 27% | +6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 27% | +30 points |
| Q4 2025 | 10% | -4.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | -20 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | -8.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | -3% | -5.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +12 points |
VST's operating margin was 27% last quarter, up 6 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
VST Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +35% |
| Q2 2026 | $334M | +$452M |
| Q1 2026 | $316M | +$485M |
| Q4 2025 | $596M | -35% |
| Q3 2025 | $1B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2025 | -$118M | -117% |
| Q1 2025 | -$169M | -$16M |
| Q4 2024 | $923M | +98% |
VST still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $2.6B over the past year.
VST Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -1.4M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -7.2M shares |
| 3 years | -9.2% | -34.3M shares |
| 5 years | -30% | -147M shares |
| Available history | -32% | -162M shares |
VST has 338M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $1.2B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $208M |
| Q2 2026 | $337M |
| Q1 2026 | $372M |
| Q4 2025 | $252M |
| Q3 2025 | $187M |
| Q2 2025 | $252M |
| Q1 2025 | $337M |
| Q4 2024 | $245M |
VST spent $1.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
VST Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.6x | Moderate |
VST's net debt is about 2.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.8 years a year ago.
VST Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 26.3 | Neutral |
VST's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
VST PE vs Utilities Sector
| Metric | VST | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 20x | 11% below |
| PE % | 39 | 44 | 5 pts below |
VST is trading at 18x earnings, a 11% discount to the Utilities sector's median of 20x.
VST Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $141.2 | 4.8% below |
| 20 week MA | $145.4 | 7.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $153.8 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $161.4 | 17% below |
| 200 week MA | $109.9 | 22% above |
VST has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 22% above its 200-week average.
VST Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $22.8 | $18.7 | -18% |
| 2021 | $18.7 | $22.0 | +18% |
| 2022 | $22.0 | $23.9 | +8.4% |
| 2023 | $23.9 | $38.5 | +61% |
| 2024 | $38.5 | $139.7 | +263% |
| 2025 | $139.7 | $161.7 | +16% |
| 2026 YTD | $161.7 | $134.5 | -17% |
VST has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 17% so far in 2026.