VRT
Vertiv Holdings Co
VRT has the edge over ZTO overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
ZTO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
VRT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
VRT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
ZTO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
ZTO's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
VRT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 23x | $210 | — |
| Current | 39x | $210 | — |
| Cheap | 58x | $308 | +47% |
| Fair | 72x | $383 | +83% |
| Expensive | 88x | $472 | +125% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VRT's PE is in its cheap range at 39x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 23x next year's earnings.
ZTO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $20.08 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $25.30 | +26% |
| Fair | 22x | $41.96 | +109% |
| Expensive | 32x | $62.56 | +212% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ZTO has the edge over VRT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
VRT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
VRT has the edge over ZTO on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
ZTO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ZTO, but weaker profitability.
VRT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.14 | +71% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.35 | +102% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | +111% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.98 | +131% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.41 | +166% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.65 | +75% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.09 | +62% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.72 | +64% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.28 | +7.6% |
VRT has the edge over ZTO on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ZTO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.93 | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.72 | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.68 | +4.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.62 | +3.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.59 | +1.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.71 | +10% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.61 | +1.3% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.57 | -0.6% |
ZTO earned $1.93 per share over the past year, up 21% from the year before.
VRT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | +61% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.6B | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9B | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.7B | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $2B | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.3B | +26% |
VRT has the edge over ZTO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +3.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +2.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 19% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | +4.2 points |
VRT has the edge over ZTO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ZTO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $2B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.8B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.8B | +10% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.6B | +9.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9B | +22% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.6B | +18% |
ZTO's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $2.2B last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 22% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | -3.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | -5.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | -7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 21% | -9.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 22% | -0.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 27% | +0.8 points |
| Q3 2024 | 27% | -0.1 points |
ZTO's operating margin was 22% last quarter, up 0.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
VRT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $654.9M | +41% |
| Q2 2026 | $926.5M | +233% |
| Q1 2026 | $654.2M | +145% |
| Q4 2025 | $885.6M | +143% |
| Q3 2025 | $463.5M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $277.9M | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $266.8M | +162% |
| Q4 2024 | $364.5M | +18% |
VRT generated $3.1B in free cash flow over the past year, up 127% from the year before.
ZTO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $285.4M | +$399.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $418.6M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | -$148.3M | +$212.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $481.9M | +3.2% |
| Q2 2025 | -$113.7M | -191% |
| Q1 2025 | $354.6M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | -$360.4M | +$30.6M |
| Q3 2024 | $467M | +5.9% |
ZTO generated $1B in free cash flow over the past year, about three times what it generated the year before.
VRT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -64.9K shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +1.8M shares |
| 3 years | +1.1% | +4.4M shares |
| 5 years | +10% | +36M shares |
| Available history | +63% | +152M shares |
VRT has 393M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | $599.9M |
ZTO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.1% | +16.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -17.1M shares |
| 3 years | -3% | -25.2M shares |
| 5 years | -1.5% | -12M shares |
| Available history | +4.2% | +32.6M shares |
ZTO has the edge over VRT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $766.5M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $188M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $7M |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $173.7M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
ZTO spent $954M buying back its own shares over the past year, about five times what it spent the year before.
VRT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Healthy |
VRT has the edge over ZTO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ZTO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.5x | Very low |
ZTO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
VRT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 26.4 | Neutral |
VRT's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
ZTO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.0 | Neutral |
ZTO's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 25 (neutral).
VRT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | VRT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39x | 24x | 63% above |
| PE % | 3 | 58 | 55 pts below |
VRT is trading at 39x earnings, a 63% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
ZTO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ZTO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 24x | 57% below |
| PE % | 0 | 58 | 58 pts below |
ZTO has the edge over VRT on valuation relative to its sector.
VRT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $221.8 | 5.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $254.4 | 18% below |
| 50 week MA | $253.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $189.1 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $123.5 | 70% above |
VRT has the edge over ZTO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ZTO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $20.0 | 0.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $21.6 | 6.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $22.6 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $20.8 | 3.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $22.0 | 8.8% below |
ZTO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 8.8% below its 200-week average.
VRT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.9 | $18.9 | +73% |
| 2021 | $18.9 | $24.9 | +31% |
| 2022 | $24.9 | $12.8 | -48% |
| 2023 | $12.8 | $48.0 | +275% |
| 2024 | $48.0 | $115.1 | +140% |
| 2025 | $115.1 | $167.6 | +46% |
| 2026 YTD | $167.6 | $209.6 | +25% |
VRT has the edge over ZTO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ZTO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $23.5 | $28.0 | +19% |
| 2021 | $28.0 | $27.4 | -2.2% |
| 2022 | $27.4 | $26.4 | -3.6% |
| 2023 | $26.4 | $21.3 | -19% |
| 2024 | $21.3 | $19.7 | -7.2% |
| 2025 | $19.7 | $21.3 | +7.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.3 | $20.1 | -5.6% |
ZTO has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 5.6% so far in 2026.