VLO
Valero Energy Corporation
VLO's fundamentals are strong and it looks cheap: trading at 8.4x earnings, below its usual 14x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
VLO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
VLO's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
VLO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 4.9x | $218 | -42% |
| Forward | 6x | $375 | — |
| Current | 8.5x | $375 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $581 | +55% |
| Expensive | 38x | $1,682 | +349% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VLO's PE is in its fair range at 8.4x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 6.0x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
VLO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for VLO, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
VLO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $62.18 | +40% |
| Q3 2026 | $44.39 | +808% |
| Q2 2026 | $24.03 | +861% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.69 | +367% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.57 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.89 | -57% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.50 | -86% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.93 | -86% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.58 | -66% |
VLO's earnings per share have jumped to their highest in seven years: $44.39 over the past year, up from $4.89 the year before.
VLO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $46.1B | +43% |
| Q2 2026 | $44.5B | +49% |
| Q1 2026 | $32.4B | +7% |
| Q4 2025 | $30.4B | -1.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $32.2B | -2.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $29.9B | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $30.3B | -4.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $30.8B | -13% |
VLO's revenue is growing: $46.1B last quarter, up 43% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +8.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.3% | +8.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.2% | +4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.7% | +3.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.3% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | -3% | -8.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1% | -3.3 points |
VLO's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
VLO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.9B | +371% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.6B | +955% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +374% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.5B | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $529M | -79% |
| Q1 2025 | $293M | -84% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.3B | -61% |
| Q2 2024 | $2.5B | +63% |
VLO generated $16B in free cash flow over the past year, about four times what it generated the year before.
VLO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3.1% | -9M shares |
| 1 year | -7.8% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -18% | -64M shares |
| 5 years | -30% | -123M shares |
| Available history | -31% | -129M shares |
VLO has 285M diluted shares, down 7.8% from a year ago, with $7.3B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $2.3B |
| Q1 2026 | $573M |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2025 | $922M |
| Q2 2025 | $338M |
| Q1 2025 | $274M |
| Q4 2024 | $259M |
VLO spent $7.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, about four times what it spent the year before.
VLO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 6.0x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
VLO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.9 years a year ago.
VLO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 47.3 | Neutral |
VLO's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 47 (neutral).
VLO PE vs Energy Sector
| Metric | VLO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.5x | 13x | 36% below |
| PE % | 40 | 61 | 21 pts below |
VLO is trading at 8.4x earnings, a 36% discount to the Energy sector's median of 13x.
VLO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $401.5 | 6.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $360.1 | 4.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $274.3 | 37% above |
| 100 week MA | $207.5 | 81% above |
| 200 week MA | $172.4 | 118% above |
VLO's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 118% above its 200-week average.
VLO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $93.2 | $55.7 | -40% |
| 2021 | $55.7 | $71.7 | +29% |
| 2022 | $71.7 | $124.4 | +73% |
| 2023 | $124.4 | $130.0 | +4.5% |
| 2024 | $130.0 | $119.6 | -8% |
| 2025 | $119.6 | $164.0 | +37% |
| 2026 YTD | $164.0 | $375.0 | +129% |
VLO has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 129% so far in 2026.