VALE
Vale S.A.
VALE's fundamentals are strong: its operating margin rose 5 points to 28% and revenue grew 14%, though earnings per share fell 60%. Its PE isn't a useful guide right now because of how its recent earnings were reported.
VALE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
VALE's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
VALE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 3.9x | $1.89 | -83% |
| Fair | 6.6x | $3.17 | -72% |
| Current | 24x | $11.28 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $11.84 | +4.9% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VALE's PE is 24x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
VALE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong decline | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect VALE's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady.
VALE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.48 | -60% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.66 | -51% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.55 | -61% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.28 | -41% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.21 | -46% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.36 | -25% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.42 | -23% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.16 | +2.4% |
VALE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.48 over the past year, against $4.88 in late 2021.
VALE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $10.5B | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.3B | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.1B | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.4B | +8.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.8B | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.1B | -4% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.6B | -26% |
| Q3 2024 | $9.6B | -10% |
VALE's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $10.5B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 25% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 29% | +6.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | +16 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | -5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | -16 points |
| Q1 2025 | 22% | -6.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | -29 points |
| Q3 2024 | 38% | +7.6 points |
VALE's operating margin was 25% last quarter, up 2.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
VALE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $699.9M | +65% |
| Q4 2025 | $723M | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +509% |
| Q2 2025 | $732.5M | +$849.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $423.9M | -81% |
| Q4 2024 | $586M | -78% |
| Q3 2024 | $196.6M | -86% |
VALE still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2021 peak: $3.9B over the past year.
VALE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -8.7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -7.9M shares |
| 3 years | -3.1% | -135M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -836M shares |
| Available history | -18% | -915M shares |
VALE has 4.3B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $139.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $73.4M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $5.2M |
| Q3 2024 | $5.8M |
VALE spent $213M buying back its own shares over the past year, more than ten times what it spent the year before.
VALE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.7x | Very low |
VALE's net debt is about 1.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.1 years a year ago.
VALE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 8.5 | Oversold |
VALE's weekly RSI is 30 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
VALE PE vs Basic Materials Sector
| Metric | VALE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 19x | 26% above |
| PE % | 81 | 40 | 41 pts above |
VALE is trading at 24x earnings, a 26% premium to the Basic Materials sector's median of 19x, though its earnings don't support one.
VALE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.6 | 10% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.8 | 18% below |
| 50 week MA | $14.8 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.4 | 9.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.8 | 12% below |
VALE is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 12% below its 200-week average.
VALE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.2 | $16.9 | +28% |
| 2021 | $16.9 | $13.9 | -18% |
| 2022 | $13.9 | $16.7 | +20% |
| 2023 | $16.7 | $15.9 | -5% |
| 2024 | $15.9 | $8.92 | -44% |
| 2025 | $8.92 | $13.2 | +48% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.2 | $11.3 | -15% |
VALE has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 15% so far in 2026.