TPB
Turning Point Brands, Inc.
TPB's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 41x earnings, above its usual 28x. Its downside scenario is about three times its upside.
TPB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
TPB's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability and balance sheet are stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
TPB PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $18.52 | -67% |
| Fair | 28x | $37.85 | -32% |
| Forward | 33x | $55.75 | — |
| Current | 41x | $55.75 | — |
| Expensive | 45x | $61.28 | +9.9% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TPB's PE is in its expensive range at 41x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 33x, in its fair range.
TPB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect TPB's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken.
TPB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.68 | +23% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.37 | -52% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.31 | -3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.92 | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.11 | +47% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.84 | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.39 | -1.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.28 | +0.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.12 | +3.4% |
TPB earned $1.37 per share over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
TPB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $151.1M | +27% |
| Q2 2026 | $143M | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $124.3M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $121M | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $119M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $116.6M | +7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $106.4M | +9.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $93.7M | -3.6% |
TPB's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $151M last quarter, up 27% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.5% | -15 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | -11 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | -2.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 22% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | -5.6 points |
TPB's operating margin was 6.5% last quarter, down 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
TPB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.5M | +$4.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $26.2M | +235% |
| Q1 2026 | -$27.4M | -280% |
| Q4 2025 | $21.5M | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | -$721K | -106% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.8M | -28% |
| Q1 2025 | $15.2M | -32% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.6M | -34% |
TPB still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $24M over the past year.
TPB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +118K shares |
| 1 year | +8.4% | +1.6M shares |
| 3 years | +0.9% | +180K shares |
| 5 years | -9.3% | -2.1M shares |
| Available history | +1.2% | +241K shares |
TPB has 20M diluted shares, up 8.4% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $881,000 |
| Q3 2024 | $1.1M |
| Q2 2024 | $972,000 |
| Q1 2024 | $2.1M |
TPB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2024 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2024 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2023 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q3 2023 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2023 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2023 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2022 | 3.7x | Elevated |
TPB's net debt is about 2.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.2 years a year ago.
TPB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 23.3 | Neutral |
TPB's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
TPB PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector
| Metric | TPB | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 41x | 19x | 109% above |
| PE % | 76 | 18 | 58 pts above |
TPB is trading at 41x earnings, a 109% premium to the Consumer Defensive sector's median of 19x.
TPB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $61.3 | 9.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $72.7 | 23% below |
| 50 week MA | $88.7 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $82.8 | 33% below |
| 200 week MA | $56.2 | 0.9% below |
TPB is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.9% below its 200-week average.
TPB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.6 | $47.0 | +70% |
| 2021 | $47.0 | $36.6 | -22% |
| 2022 | $36.6 | $20.1 | -45% |
| 2023 | $20.1 | $26.3 | +31% |
| 2024 | $26.3 | $59.8 | +127% |
| 2025 | $59.8 | $106.3 | +78% |
| 2026 YTD | $106.3 | $55.8 | -48% |
TPB's yearly returns have swung widely, from +127% in 2024 to −45% in 2022. It's down 48% so far in 2026.