TOL
Toll Brothers, Inc.
TOL has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA has a slight edge over TOL overall, supported by stronger fundamentals.
TOL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
TOL's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its revenue is under pressure.
TSLA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
TSLA's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
TOL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.9x | $73.71 | -50% |
| Fair | 9.3x | $116 | -21% |
| Forward | 11x | $148 | — |
| Expensive | 12x | $151 | +2.3% |
| Current | 12x | $148 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TOL has the edge over TSLA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TSLA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 60x | $54.70 | -86% |
| Fair | 174x | $158 | -60% |
| Forward | 196x | $397 | — |
| Expensive | 415x | $378 | -4.9% |
| Current | 437x | $397 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TSLA's PE is in its expensive range at 437x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 196x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
TOL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TOL, with profitability holding steady.
TSLA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TSLA, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TOL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.54 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.46 | -8.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.22 | -1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.00 | -3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.56 | -9.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.61 | -6.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.48 | -7.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.53 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.03 | +21% |
TOL has the edge over TSLA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | +123% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.91 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.08 | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.08 | -47% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.50 | -59% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.73 | -51% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.82 | -53% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.04 | -53% |
TSLA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.91 over the past year, against $4.30 in late 2023.
TOL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.7B | -9.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | -7.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.1B | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.4B | +2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.9B | +8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7B | -3.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | -4.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.3B | +10% |
TOL's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $2.7B last quarter, down 9.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | -1.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | -5.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.2 points |
TOL has the edge over TSLA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TSLA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.2B | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.4B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.9B | -3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $28.1B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.5B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.3B | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.7B | +2.1% |
TSLA has the edge over TOL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6% | -3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.2% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.8% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.1% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2% | -2 points |
TSLA's operating margin was 2.6% last quarter, down 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
TOL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $219.6M | -36% |
| Q2 2026 | $110M | -68% |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.6M | +$426.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $772.2M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $344.9M | +130% |
| Q2 2025 | $347.3M | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | -$438.1M | -$117.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $664.3M | +16% |
TOL has the edge over TSLA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | -62% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.1B | -848% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +117% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $4B | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $146M | -89% |
| Q1 2025 | $664M | +$3.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | -1.6% |
TSLA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $3.3B over the past year.
TOL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -1.3M shares |
| 1 year | -4.8% | -4.7M shares |
| 3 years | -15% | -16.7M shares |
| 5 years | -25% | -31.2M shares |
| Available history | -34% | -49.1M shares |
TOL has the edge over TSLA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $204.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $179.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $246.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $199.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $181.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $23.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $203.5M |
TOL spent $682M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 12% from the year before.
TSLA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +15M shares |
| 3 years | +1.4% | +48M shares |
| 5 years | +5.1% | +172M shares |
| Available history | +33% | +886M shares |
TSLA has 3.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
TOL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 1.8x | Healthy |
TOL's net debt is about 2.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.3 years a year ago.
TSLA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
TSLA has the edge over TOL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TOL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 63.7 | Neutral |
TOL's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 64 (neutral).
TSLA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.6 | Neutral |
TSLA's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
TOL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TOL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 18x | 34% below |
| PE % | 82 | 47 | 35 pts above |
TOL has the edge over TSLA on valuation relative to its sector.
TSLA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TSLA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 437x | 18x | 2,324% above |
| PE % | 84 | 47 | 37 pts above |
TSLA is trading at 437x earnings, a 2324% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
TOL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $140.9 | 5% above |
| 20 week MA | $144.3 | 2.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $144.0 | 2.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $132.7 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $116.9 | 27% above |
TOL is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 27% above its 200-week average.
TSLA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $376.0 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $364.0 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $393.6 | 1% above |
| 100 week MA | $372.1 | 6.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $296.9 | 34% above |
TSLA is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 34% above its 200-week average.
TOL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $39.9 | $45.6 | +14% |
| 2021 | $45.6 | $70.5 | +54% |
| 2022 | $70.5 | $50.8 | -28% |
| 2023 | $50.8 | $102.8 | +102% |
| 2024 | $102.8 | $126.5 | +23% |
| 2025 | $126.5 | $139.1 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $139.1 | $148.0 | +6.4% |
TOL has the edge over TSLA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TSLA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.7 | $220.6 | +669% |
| 2021 | $220.6 | $355.7 | +61% |
| 2022 | $355.7 | $123.2 | -65% |
| 2023 | $123.2 | $248.5 | +102% |
| 2024 | $248.5 | $431.7 | +74% |
| 2025 | $431.7 | $475.2 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $475.2 | $397.5 | -16% |
TSLA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +669% in 2020 to −65% in 2022. It's down 16% so far in 2026.