TMDX
TransMedics Group, Inc.
TMDX has the edge over UNH overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
TMDX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
TMDX's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
UNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
TMDX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 21x | $75.93 | -17% |
| Current | 25x | $92.00 | — |
| Forward | 41x | $92.00 | — |
| Fair | 59x | $217 | +136% |
| Expensive | 91x | $335 | +264% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TMDX has the edge over UNH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
UNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $405 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $325 | -20% |
| Fair | 23x | $410 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $405 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $526 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
TMDX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for TMDX, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
UNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TMDX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.22 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.66 | +48% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.86 | +100% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.37 | +221% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.87 | +382% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.47 | +163% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.93 | +4725% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.36 | +$1.70 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.01 | +$1.78 |
TMDX has the edge over UNH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.65 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.55 | -8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.58 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.28 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.23 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.17 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.09 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.89 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.51 | -35% |
UNH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $17.55 over the past year, against $23.89 in early 2025.
TMDX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $203M | +41% |
| Q2 2026 | $189.9M | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $173.9M | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $160.8M | +32% |
| Q3 2025 | $143.8M | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $157.4M | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $143.5M | +48% |
| Q4 2024 | $121.6M | +50% |
TMDX has the edge over UNH on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -2.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | -11 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.6% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | +13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 19% | +6.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.1% | +3.9 points |
TMDX has the edge over UNH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.7B | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $109.6B | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.8B | +6.8% |
UNH's revenue has held roughly level: $113B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | -7.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.4 points |
UNH's operating margin was 5.8% last quarter, up 2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TMDX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $27.6M | -55% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.2M | -88% |
| Q1 2026 | -$12.1M | +$17.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $19M | +214% |
| Q3 2025 | $61.9M | +$103.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $82.5M | +4122% |
| Q1 2025 | -$29.9M | +$17.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $6.1M | +$39.6M |
TMDX has the edge over UNH on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.3B | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.1B | +79% |
| Q4 2025 | $160M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +1037% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +$7.6B |
UNH still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $22.8B over the past year.
TMDX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +124K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +85.2K shares |
| 3 years | +25% | +8.2M shares |
| 5 years | +47% | +13.1M shares |
| Available history | +92% | +19.6M shares |
TMDX has 41M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
UNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -34M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -53M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -64M shares |
UNH has the edge over TMDX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
UNH spent $5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
TMDX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.9x | Net Cash |
TMDX has the edge over UNH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
UNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
UNH's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
TMDX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 54.9 | Neutral |
TMDX's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 55 (neutral).
UNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.0 | Neutral |
UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
TMDX PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | TMDX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 26x | 2.7% below |
| PE % | 29 | 29 | Same percentile |
TMDX is trading at 25x earnings, in line with the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | UNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 26x | 11% below |
| PE % | 47 | 29 | 18 pts above |
UNH has the edge over TMDX on valuation relative to its sector.
TMDX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $78.8 | 17% above |
| 20 week MA | $80.4 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $98.1 | 6.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $99.8 | 7.9% below |
| 200 week MA | $96.2 | 4.4% below |
TMDX has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 4.4% below its 200-week average.
UNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $394.2 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $400.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $361.2 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $376.0 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $446.6 | 9.3% below |
UNH has the edge over TMDX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
TMDX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.6 | $18.8 | +1% |
| 2021 | $18.8 | $21.0 | +12% |
| 2022 | $21.0 | $59.5 | +183% |
| 2023 | $59.5 | $78.9 | +33% |
| 2024 | $78.9 | $61.0 | -23% |
| 2025 | $61.0 | $124.2 | +104% |
| 2026 YTD | $124.2 | $92.0 | -26% |
TMDX has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 26% so far in 2026.
UNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.0 | $340.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $340.8 | $495.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $495.4 | $531.3 | +7.3% |
| 2023 | $531.3 | $526.5 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $526.5 | $510.0 | -3.1% |
| 2025 | $510.0 | $331.8 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.8 | $405.1 | +22% |
UNH has the edge over TMDX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.