TAK
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited
TAK has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH has the edge over TAK overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
TAK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
TAK's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
UNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
TAK PE Valuation
TAK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $405 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $325 | -20% |
| Fair | 23x | $410 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $405 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $526 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
TAK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect TAK's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
UNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TAK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.35 | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.27 | -6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.21 | -28% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.41 | +17% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.57 | +50% |
| Q2 2024 | $0.29 | -52% |
| Q1 2024 | $0.29 | -54% |
| Q4 2023 | $0.35 | -36% |
TAK has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 83% for TAK versus UNH down 8.5%.
UNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.65 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.55 | -8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.58 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.28 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.23 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.17 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.09 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.89 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.51 | -35% |
UNH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $17.55 over the past year, against $23.89 in early 2025.
TAK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.4B | +6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.6B | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $7B | +5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.6B | +6% |
| Q3 2025 | $7B | -5.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.9B | -8.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.6B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.2B | +3% |
TAK's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $7.4B last quarter, up 6.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17% | +11 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | N/A |
| Q1 2026 | 4.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | +23 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.2% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | -7.1% | -6.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.8% | -3.6 points |
TAK has the edge over UNH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.7B | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $109.6B | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.8B | +6.8% |
UNH has the edge over TAK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | -7.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.4 points |
UNH's operating margin was 5.8% last quarter, up 2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TAK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $462.7M | -47% |
| Q1 2026 | $63.5M | -92% |
| Q4 2025 | $945.7M | -54% |
| Q3 2025 | $2B | +73% |
| Q2 2025 | $879.7M | +735% |
| Q2 2025 | $879.7M | +735% |
| Q1 2025 | $811.3M | -40% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | +372% |
TAK still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $3.5B over the past year.
UNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.3B | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.1B | +79% |
| Q4 2025 | $160M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +1037% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +$7.6B |
UNH still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $22.8B over the past year.
TAK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +1.7% | +54.5M shares |
| 3 years | +2.5% | +78.8M shares |
| 5 years | +1.5% | +48.6M shares |
| Available history | +3% | +94M shares |
TAK has 3.2B diluted shares, up 1.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $323.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $313.3M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
UNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -34M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -53M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -64M shares |
UNH has the edge over TAK on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
UNH spent $5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
TAK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q3 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q2 2024 | 4.2x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 4.0x | High |
TAK's net debt is about 3.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.6 years a year ago.
UNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
UNH has the edge over TAK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TAK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 73.9 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 89.0 | Overbought |
TAK's weekly RSI is 74 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 89 (overbought).
UNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.0 | Neutral |
UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
TAK PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | TAK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 26x | — |
TAK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | UNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 26x | 11% below |
| PE % | 47 | 29 | 18 pts above |
UNH is trading at 23x earnings, a 11% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
TAK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $19.8 | 6.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $18.5 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $17.4 | 21% above |
| 100 week MA | $15.9 | 33% above |
| 200 week MA | $15.3 | 38% above |
TAK has the edge over UNH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
UNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $394.2 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $400.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $361.2 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $376.0 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $446.6 | 9.3% below |
UNH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 9.3% below its 200-week average.
TAK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $19.8 | $18.1 | -8.7% |
| 2021 | $18.1 | $13.8 | -24% |
| 2022 | $13.8 | $15.5 | +13% |
| 2023 | $15.5 | $14.3 | -8.2% |
| 2024 | $14.3 | $13.3 | -7% |
| 2025 | $13.3 | $15.7 | +18% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.7 | $21.1 | +35% |
TAK has the edge over UNH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
UNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.0 | $340.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $340.8 | $495.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $495.4 | $531.3 | +7.3% |
| 2023 | $531.3 | $526.5 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $526.5 | $510.0 | -3.1% |
| 2025 | $510.0 | $331.8 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.8 | $405.1 | +22% |
UNH has finished three years in a row lower, and it's up 22% so far in 2026.