STLD
Steel Dynamics, Inc.
STLD's fundamentals are strong, but it looks expensive: trading at 18x earnings, about twice its usual 9.6x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
STLD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
STLD's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
STLD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.3x | $71.95 | -70% |
| Fair | 9.6x | $130 | -45% |
| Forward | 10x | $237 | — |
| Current | 18x | $237 | — |
| Expensive | 19x | $261 | +10% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
STLD's PE is in its expensive range at 18x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 10x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
STLD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for STLD, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
STLD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.88 | +69% |
| Q3 2026 | $13.53 | +78% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.01 | +60% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.33 | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.99 | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.59 | -32% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.90 | -45% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.61 | -48% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.84 | -33% |
STLD's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $13.53 over the past year, against $22.54 in late 2022.
STLD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.5B | +35% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.1B | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.2B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.4B | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.8B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.6B | -1.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.4B | -6.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.9B | -8.5% |
STLD's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $6.5B last quarter, up 35% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +4.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +3.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | +4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7% | +0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.4% | -3.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6.3% | -9.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.1% | -6.1 points |
STLD's operating margin was 15% last quarter, up 4.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
STLD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $696.2M | +25% |
| Q2 2026 | $304.1M | +2190% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.3M | +$163.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $84.2M | +$190.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $556.9M | +302% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.3M | +$49.9M |
| Q1 2025 | -$152.9M | -$133.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$106.3M | -130% |
STLD still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $1.1B over the past year.
STLD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -968K shares |
| 1 year | -2.7% | -4M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -22.5M shares |
| 5 years | -30% | -60.5M shares |
| Available history | -35% | -77.1M shares |
STLD has 144M diluted shares, down 2.7% from a year ago, with $831M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $275.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $200.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $115.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $240.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $210.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $200M |
| Q1 2025 | $250.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $295.1M |
STLD spent $831M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 13% from the year before.
STLD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
STLD's net debt is about a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.6 years a year ago.
STLD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 34.7 | Neutral |
STLD's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
STLD PE vs Basic Materials Sector
| Metric | STLD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 19x | 5.9% below |
| PE % | 78 | 40 | 38 pts above |
STLD is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Basic Materials sector's median of 19x.
STLD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $237.1 | 0% above |
| 20 week MA | $238.9 | 0.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $217.0 | 9.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $174.5 | 36% above |
| 200 week MA | $146.7 | 62% above |
STLD has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 62% above its 200-week average.
STLD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $34.5 | $36.4 | +5.4% |
| 2021 | $36.4 | $61.7 | +69% |
| 2022 | $61.7 | $102.6 | +66% |
| 2023 | $102.6 | $118.1 | +15% |
| 2024 | $118.1 | $115.8 | -2% |
| 2025 | $115.8 | $175.5 | +52% |
| 2026 YTD | $175.5 | $237.1 | +35% |
STLD has finished higher in five of the last six years, three of them by more than 50%. It's up 35% so far in 2026.