SMG
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
SMG's fundamentals are strong, but it looks expensive: trading at 53x earnings, about twice its usual 26x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
SMG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
SMG's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
SMG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 13x | $63.74 | — |
| Cheap | 15x | $17.64 | -72% |
| Fair | 25x | $30.57 | -52% |
| Expensive | 48x | $58.16 | -8.7% |
| Current | 53x | $63.74 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SMG's PE is in its expensive range at 53x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
SMG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect SMG's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SMG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.75 | +296% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.20 | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.84 | +217% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.52 | +$1.92 |
| Q3 2025 | $2.47 | +$3.08 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.84 | +$5.57 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.58 | +$6.82 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.40 | +$6.64 |
| Q3 2024 | -$0.61 | +$6.18 |
SMG's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.20 over the past year, against $9.87 in mid-2021.
SMG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | -1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $354.4M | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $387.3M | -6.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | -1.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | -6.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $416.8M | +1.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $414.7M | +11% |
SMG's revenue fell from its 2021 peak and has held roughly level since: $1.2B last quarter, down 1.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 28% | +3.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -6.2% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -39% | +13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 24% | +6.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | -12% | -0.7 points |
| Q3 2024 | -52% | +59 points |
SMG's operating margin was 14% last quarter, down 3.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SMG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $321.1M | -27% |
| Q1 2026 | $201.4M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | -$390.4M | +$84.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $131.2M | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $437.5M | -24% |
| Q1 2025 | $179.8M | -38% |
| Q4 2024 | -$474.6M | -$93.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $101.9M | -80% |
SMG still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $263M over the past year.
SMG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +100K shares |
| 1 year | +1% | +600K shares |
| 3 years | +4.6% | +2.6M shares |
| 5 years | +3.1% | +1.8M shares |
| Available history | +6.3% | +3.5M shares |
SMG has 59M diluted shares, up 1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $500,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $3.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $8.3M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $100,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $2.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $15.6M |
| Q3 2024 | $100,000 |
SMG spent $12M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 35% from the year before.
SMG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 4.9x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 6.0x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 7.4x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 9.9x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 7.9x | High |
SMG's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.0 years a year ago.
SMG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.8 | Neutral |
SMG's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 69 (neutral).
SMG PE vs Basic Materials Sector
| Metric | SMG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 53x | 19x | 185% above |
| PE % | 86 | 40 | 46 pts above |
SMG is trading at 53x earnings, a 185% premium to the Basic Materials sector's median of 19x.
SMG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $56.8 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $60.4 | 5.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $61.6 | 3.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $61.2 | 4.1% above |
| 200 week MA | $63.9 | 0.3% below |
SMG has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 0.3% below its 200-week average.
SMG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $106.8 | $199.5 | +87% |
| 2021 | $199.5 | $161.1 | -19% |
| 2022 | $161.1 | $47.7 | -70% |
| 2023 | $47.7 | $63.8 | +34% |
| 2024 | $63.8 | $66.0 | +3.6% |
| 2025 | $66.0 | $57.9 | -12% |
| 2026 YTD | $57.9 | $63.7 | +10% |
SMG has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 10% so far in 2026.