SAFE
Safehold Inc.
SAFE's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks cheap: trading at 6.1x earnings, below its usual 10x. Analysts expect earnings to hold roughly steady, though they disagree widely on how much.
SAFE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SAFE's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for real estate companies like SAFE.
SAFE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 6.1x | $9.85 | — |
| Forward | 6.1x | $9.85 | — |
| Cheap | 8.8x | $14.14 | +44% |
| Fair | 10x | $16.31 | +66% |
| Expensive | 12x | $19.72 | +100% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SAFE's PE is in its cheap range at 6.1x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 6.1x.
SAFE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect SAFE's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SAFE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.63 | +1.1% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.61 | +2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.61 | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.58 | +8.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.59 | +7.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.57 | -7.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.43 | +$1.82 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.46 | +$1.92 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.48 | +$2.30 |
SAFE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.61 over the past year, against $49.65 in early 2022.
SAFE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $118.7M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $114.6M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $110.9M | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $97.9M | +6.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $96.2M | +6% |
| Q2 2025 | $93.8M | +4.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $97.7M | +4.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $91.9M | -11% |
SAFE's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $119M last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 25% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 23% | -2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 27% | +2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | +8.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 25% | -1.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 26% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 25% | -9.2 points |
SAFE's operating margin was 25% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SAFE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.5M | +$6.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $34.6M | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | -$8.6M | -197% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.3M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.4M | -117% |
| Q2 2025 | $28M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.9M | +$12M |
| Q4 2024 | $7.9M | -66% |
SAFE's free cash flow was $44M over the past year, up 1% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for real estate companies like SAFE.
SAFE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -599K shares |
| 1 year | -1.2% | -861K shares |
| 3 years | +4.4% | +3M shares |
| 5 years | +329% | +54.4M shares |
| Available history | +432% | +57.6M shares |
SAFE has 71M diluted shares, down 1.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $12.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $3.2M |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | $33.7M |
| Q3 2021 | $56.4M |
| Q2 2021 | $21.8M |
SAFE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 40.9x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 42.8x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 41.7x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 42.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 45.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 44.4x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 44.4x | High |
SAFE's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from more than 20 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for real estate companies like SAFE.
SAFE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 22.2 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 5.3 | Oversold |
SAFE's weekly RSI is 22 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
SAFE PE vs Real Estate Sector
| Metric | SAFE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.1x | 24x | 74% below |
| PE % | 0 | 16 | 16 pts below |
SAFE is trading at 6.1x earnings, a 74% discount to the Real Estate sector's median of 24x.
SAFE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.3 | 13% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.9 | 29% below |
| 50 week MA | $14.4 | 32% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.2 | 35% below |
SAFE is in a downtrend: it's below all four of its weekly moving averages, and 35% below its 100-week average.
SAFE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $29.4 | $23.4 | -20% |
| 2024 | $23.4 | $18.6 | -20% |
| 2025 | $18.6 | $13.5 | -27% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.5 | $9.85 | -27% |
SAFE has finished every year since 2023 lower, and it's down 27% so far in 2026.