RKLB
Rocket Lab USA, Inc.
RKLB offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
ZTO has the edge over RKLB overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
RKLB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RKLB's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ZTO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
ZTO's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
RKLB PE Valuation
RKLB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ZTO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $20.08 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $25.30 | +26% |
| Fair | 22x | $41.96 | +109% |
| Expensive | 32x | $62.56 | +212% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ZTO's PE is 10x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
RKLB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
RKLB has the edge over ZTO on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
ZTO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ZTO, but weaker profitability.
RKLB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.36 | +$0.03 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.27 | +$0.19 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.32 | +$0.09 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.37 | +$0.01 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.39 | -$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.46 | -$0.11 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.41 | -$0.04 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.38 | $0.00 |
RKLB is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $0.36 per share over the past year, against $0.46 at its worst in mid-2025.
ZTO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.93 | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.72 | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.68 | +4.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.62 | +3.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.59 | +1.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.71 | +10% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.61 | +1.3% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.57 | -0.6% |
ZTO has the edge over RKLB on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RKLB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $267.8M | +73% |
| Q2 2026 | $234.1M | +62% |
| Q1 2026 | $200.3M | +63% |
| Q4 2025 | $179.7M | +36% |
| Q3 2025 | $155.1M | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $144.5M | +36% |
| Q1 2025 | $122.6M | +32% |
| Q4 2024 | $132.4M | +121% |
RKLB has the edge over ZTO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -30% | +8.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | -25% | +17 points |
| Q1 2026 | -28% | +20 points |
| Q4 2025 | -28% | +11 points |
| Q3 2025 | -38% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -41% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | -48% | -1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | -39% | +41 points |
RKLB's operating margin was −30% last quarter, up 8.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ZTO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $2B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.8B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.8B | +10% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.6B | +9.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9B | +22% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.6B | +18% |
ZTO's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $2.2B last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 22% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | -3.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | -5.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | -7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 21% | -9.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 22% | -0.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 27% | +0.8 points |
| Q3 2024 | 27% | -0.1 points |
ZTO has the edge over RKLB on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RKLB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$23.9M | +$45.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$110.1M | -$54.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$77.4M | +$5.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$114.2M | -$90.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$69.4M | -$27.5M |
| Q2 2025 | -$55.3M | -$26.9M |
| Q1 2025 | -$82.9M | -$61.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$23.9M | +$28.7M |
RKLB has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$326M over the past year, against −$232M the year before.
ZTO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $285.4M | +$399.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $418.6M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | -$148.3M | +$212.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $481.9M | +3.2% |
| Q2 2025 | -$113.7M | -191% |
| Q1 2025 | $354.6M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | -$360.4M | +$30.6M |
| Q3 2024 | $467M | +5.9% |
ZTO has the edge over RKLB on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RKLB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.6% | +22.6M shares |
| 1 year | +23% | +124M shares |
| 3 years | +35% | +168M shares |
| 5 years | +46% | +204M shares |
RKLB has 652M diluted shares, up 23% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
ZTO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.1% | +16.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -17.1M shares |
| 3 years | -3% | -25.2M shares |
| 5 years | -1.5% | -12M shares |
| Available history | +4.2% | +32.6M shares |
ZTO has the edge over RKLB on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $766.5M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $188M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $7M |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $173.7M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
ZTO spent $954M buying back its own shares over the past year, about five times what it spent the year before.
RKLB Net Leverage
RKLB's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ZTO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.5x | Very low |
ZTO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
RKLB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.6 | Neutral |
RKLB's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 28 (neutral).
ZTO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.0 | Neutral |
ZTO's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 25 (neutral).
RKLB PE vs Industrials Sector
RKLB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ZTO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ZTO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 24x | 57% below |
| PE % | 0 | 58 | 58 pts below |
ZTO is trading at 10x earnings, a 57% discount to the Industrials sector's median of 24x, though its earnings don't support one.
RKLB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $61.4 | 4.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $68.1 | 5.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $77.6 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.5 | 13% above |
| 200 week MA | $31.4 | 104% above |
RKLB has the edge over ZTO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ZTO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $20.0 | 0.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $21.6 | 6.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $22.6 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $20.8 | 3.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $22.0 | 8.8% below |
ZTO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 8.8% below its 200-week average.
RKLB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.82 | $10.3 | +4.9% |
| 2021 | $10.3 | $12.0 | +17% |
| 2022 | $12.0 | $3.77 | -69% |
| 2023 | $3.77 | $5.53 | +47% |
| 2024 | $5.53 | $27.2 | +392% |
| 2025 | $27.2 | $70.7 | +160% |
| 2026 YTD | $70.7 | $64.1 | -9.3% |
RKLB's yearly returns have swung widely, from +392% in 2024 to −69% in 2022. It's down 9.3% so far in 2026.
ZTO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $23.5 | $28.0 | +19% |
| 2021 | $28.0 | $27.4 | -2.2% |
| 2022 | $27.4 | $26.4 | -3.6% |
| 2023 | $26.4 | $21.3 | -19% |
| 2024 | $21.3 | $19.7 | -7.2% |
| 2025 | $19.7 | $21.3 | +7.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.3 | $20.1 | -5.6% |
ZTO has the edge over RKLB on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.