RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN has the edge over XPOF overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
XPOF
Xponential Fitness, Inc.
XPOF offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
XPOF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Weak | |
| Weak |
XPOF's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are weak.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
XPOF PE Valuation
XPOF has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
RIVN has the edge over XPOF on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
XPOF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect XPOF's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN has the edge over XPOF on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
XPOF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.49 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.20 | +$0.48 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.48 | +$0.31 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.39 | +$0.68 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.47 | +$0.80 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.68 | -$0.53 |
XPOF is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $1.20 per share over the past year, against $2.27 at its worst in late 2024.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN has the edge over XPOF on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
XPOF Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.9M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.7M | -1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.2M | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.4M | -7.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.4M | -37% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7M | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.6M | -14% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.6M | +18% |
XPOF's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $3M last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 664% | +514 points |
| Q2 2026 | 352% | -191 points |
| Q1 2026 | 603% | +233 points |
| Q4 2025 | -245% | +1194 points |
| Q3 2025 | 150% | +318 points |
| Q2 2025 | 543% | +612 points |
| Q1 2025 | 370% | +128 points |
| Q4 2024 | -1439% | -1535 points |
XPOF has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
XPOF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.1M | -50% |
| Q2 2026 | -$4.3M | -533% |
| Q1 2026 | -$22.2M | -514% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.2M | +1077% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.2M | +143% |
| Q2 2025 | $996K | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.4M | +191% |
| Q4 2024 | $864K | +$4.9M |
XPOF has the edge over RIVN on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has the edge over XPOF on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
XPOF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +17% | +7.2M shares |
| 1 year | +40% | +14.2M shares |
| 3 years | +60% | +18.5M shares |
XPOF has 49M diluted shares, up 40% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
XPOF Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11.5x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 17.1x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 14.0x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 14.4x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 16.4x | High |
| Q2 2024 | 9.1x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 4.2x | High |
| Q4 2023 | 5.1x | High |
XPOF's net debt is about 11 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 16 years a year ago.
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
XPOF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.7 | Neutral |
XPOF's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 36 (neutral).
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
XPOF PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
XPOF has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
XPOF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $4.50 | 2.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $5.11 | 9.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $6.17 | 25% below |
| 100 week MA | $8.00 | 42% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.8 | 64% below |
XPOF has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has the edge over XPOF on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
XPOF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $12.3 | $20.6 | +68% |
| 2022 | $20.6 | $22.9 | +11% |
| 2023 | $22.9 | $12.9 | -44% |
| 2024 | $12.9 | $12.8 | -0.4% |
| 2025 | $12.8 | $8.74 | -32% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.74 | $4.63 | -47% |
XPOF has finished three years in a row lower, and it's down 47% so far in 2026.