RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN has the edge over TOL overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
TOL
Toll Brothers, Inc.
TOL has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
TOL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
TOL's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its revenue is under pressure.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TOL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.9x | $73.71 | -50% |
| Fair | 9.3x | $116 | -21% |
| Forward | 11x | $148 | — |
| Expensive | 12x | $151 | +2.3% |
| Current | 12x | $148 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TOL's PE is in its expensive range at 12x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11x next year's earnings.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
RIVN has the edge over TOL on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
TOL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TOL, with profitability holding steady.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.
TOL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.54 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.46 | -8.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.22 | -1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.00 | -3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.56 | -9.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.61 | -6.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.48 | -7.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.53 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.03 | +21% |
TOL has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN has the edge over TOL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
TOL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.7B | -9.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | -7.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.1B | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.4B | +2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.9B | +8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7B | -3.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | -4.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.3B | +10% |
TOL's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $2.7B last quarter, down 9.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | -1.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | -5.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.2 points |
TOL has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
TOL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $219.6M | -36% |
| Q2 2026 | $110M | -68% |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.6M | +$426.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $772.2M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $344.9M | +130% |
| Q2 2025 | $347.3M | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | -$438.1M | -$117.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $664.3M | +16% |
TOL has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
TOL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -1.3M shares |
| 1 year | -4.8% | -4.7M shares |
| 3 years | -15% | -16.7M shares |
| 5 years | -25% | -31.2M shares |
| Available history | -34% | -49.1M shares |
TOL has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $204.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $179.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $246.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $199.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $181.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $23.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $203.5M |
TOL spent $682M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 12% from the year before.
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
TOL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 1.8x | Healthy |
TOL's net debt is about 2.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.3 years a year ago.
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
TOL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 63.7 | Neutral |
TOL's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 64 (neutral).
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TOL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TOL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 18x | 34% below |
| PE % | 82 | 47 | 35 pts above |
TOL is trading at 12x earnings, a 34% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
TOL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $140.9 | 5% above |
| 20 week MA | $144.3 | 2.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $144.0 | 2.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $132.7 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $116.9 | 27% above |
TOL has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.
TOL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $39.9 | $45.6 | +14% |
| 2021 | $45.6 | $70.5 | +54% |
| 2022 | $70.5 | $50.8 | -28% |
| 2023 | $50.8 | $102.8 | +102% |
| 2024 | $102.8 | $126.5 | +23% |
| 2025 | $126.5 | $139.1 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $139.1 | $148.0 | +6.4% |
TOL has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.