RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN has the edge over SW overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
SW
Smurfit Westrock Plc
SW has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
SW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
SW's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
SW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9x | $7.99 | -82% |
| Forward | 15x | $43.18 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $14.37 | -67% |
| Expensive | 21x | $19.12 | -56% |
| Current | 49x | $43.18 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SW's PE is in its expensive range at 49x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect RIVN's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for SW, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
SW has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is down 173% for RIVN versus SW down 54%.
SW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.81 | +216% |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.93 | -147% |
| Q2 2024 | -$0.65 | -116% |
| Q1 2024 | $2.95 | -31% |
| Q4 2023 | $3.31 | -25% |
| Q3 2023 | $4.07 | -6.4% |
| Q2 2023 | $4.11 | -0.2% |
| Q1 2023 | $4.29 | +20% |
| Q4 2022 | $4.40 | +46% |
SW has returned to profit: it earned $0.89 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN has the edge over SW on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
SW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +2% |
| Q2 2026 | $8B | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.7B | +0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.6B | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $8B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.7B | +154% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.5B | +162% |
| Q3 2024 | $7.7B | +150% |
SW's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $8.2B last quarter, up 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6% | -0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9% | +0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.3% | -3.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.1% | -0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.6% | +5.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2% | N/A |
| Q1 2025 | 7.2% | -3.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3% | -1 points |
SW has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
SW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $360M | -31% |
| Q2 2026 | $300M | -2.3% |
| Q1 2026 | -$420M | -$178M |
| Q4 2025 | $612M | +189% |
| Q2 2025 | $307M | +$307M |
| Q1 2025 | -$242M | -$57.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $212M | -61% |
| Q2 2024 | $0 | -100% |
SW has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
SW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +2M shares |
| 3 years | +103% | +268M shares |
| 5 years | +105% | +270M shares |
| Available history | +121% | +289M shares |
SW has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | $30M |
| Q4 2023 | $1.1M |
| Q3 2023 | $382,597 |
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
SW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2023 | 1.7x | Healthy |
SW's net debt is about 3.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
SW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 36.9 | Neutral |
SW's weekly RSI is 48 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
SW PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | SW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 49x | 18x | 169% above |
| PE % | 92 | 47 | 45 pts above |
SW is trading at 49x earnings, a 169% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
SW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $43.0 | 0.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $45.1 | 4.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $43.0 | 0.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $44.0 | 1.9% below |
| 200 week MA | $42.3 | 2.2% above |
SW has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.
SW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $42.6 | $44.5 | +4.3% |
| 2021 | $44.5 | $43.0 | -3.3% |
| 2022 | $43.0 | $35.5 | -18% |
| 2023 | $35.5 | $41.5 | +17% |
| 2024 | $41.5 | $54.4 | +31% |
| 2025 | $54.4 | $38.7 | -29% |
| 2026 YTD | $38.7 | $43.2 | +11% |
SW has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.