REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.
REFI's fundamentals are mixed: revenue grew 63%, but its operating margin fell 13 points to 65%. At 7.3x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 7.7x. Analysts expect earnings growth.
REFI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
REFI's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for real estate companies like REFI.
REFI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 4.3x | $8.80 | — |
| Cheap | 7.2x | $8.69 | -1.2% |
| Current | 7.3x | $8.80 | — |
| Fair | 7.7x | $9.26 | +5.3% |
| Expensive | 8.1x | $9.74 | +11% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
REFI's PE is in its cheap range at 7.3x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 4.3x next year's earnings.
REFI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect REFI's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
REFI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.06 | +71% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.20 | -29% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.37 | -25% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.44 | -23% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.68 | -11% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.69 | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.83 | -7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.88 | -5.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.88 | -11% |
REFI's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.20 over the past year, against $2.11 in late 2023.
REFI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2023 | $13.7M | +20% |
| Q1 2023 | $14.9M | +52% |
| Q4 2022 | $14.8M | +60% |
| Q3 2022 | $12.9M | +214% |
| Q2 2022 | $11.4M | +902% |
REFI's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since mid-2022: $14M last quarter, up 20% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2023 | 63% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2023 | 72% | -7.6 points |
| Q4 2022 | 49% | -33 points |
| Q3 2022 | 76% | -24 points |
| Q2 2022 | 65% | +66 points |
| Q1 2022 | 79% | N/A |
| Q4 2021 | 82% | N/A |
| Q3 2021 | 99% | N/A |
REFI's operating margin was 63% last quarter, down 2.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
REFI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.1M | -13% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.1M | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.2M | -59% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.5M | +257% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.2M | -0.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.5M | +4.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.6M | +10% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.8M | -88% |
REFI's free cash flow was $26M over the past year, up 7.1% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for real estate companies like REFI.
REFI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +18% | +3.9M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +4.2M shares |
| 3 years | +38% | +7.1M shares |
| 5 years | +47% | +8.2M shares |
REFI has 26M diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
REFI Net Leverage
REFI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 28.6 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 6.2 | Oversold |
REFI's weekly RSI is 29 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 6 (oversold).
REFI PE vs Real Estate Sector
| Metric | REFI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.3x | 24x | 69% below |
| PE % | 19 | 27 | 8 pts below |
REFI is trading at 7.3x earnings, a 69% discount to the Real Estate sector's median of 24x.
REFI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.41 | 6.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 13% below |
| 50 week MA | $11.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.8 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $14.1 | 37% below |
REFI is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 37% below its 200-week average.
REFI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $16.3 | $16.0 | -1.4% |
| 2022 | $16.0 | $15.9 | -0.9% |
| 2023 | $15.9 | $16.2 | +1.9% |
| 2024 | $16.2 | $16.2 | 0% |
| 2025 | $16.2 | $13.1 | -19% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.1 | $8.80 | -33% |
REFI has finished lower in four of the last five years. It's down 33% so far in 2026.