RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has the edge over WMS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
WMS
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.
WMS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
WMS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
WMS's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
WMS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 19x | $100 | -19% |
| Forward | 19x | $124 | — |
| Current | 23x | $124 | — |
| Fair | 25x | $134 | +8.5% |
| Expensive | 43x | $226 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
WMS's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
RDW has the edge over WMS on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
WMS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for WMS, with profitability holding steady.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
WMS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.43 | +22% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.26 | -10% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.79 | +4.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.44 | -5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.01 | +0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.86 | -6.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.54 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.76 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.99 | -4.9% |
WMS has the edge over RDW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $109M last quarter, up 5.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
WMS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $889.4M | +4.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $676.8M | +9.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $693.4M | +0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $850.4M | +8.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $829.9M | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $615.8M | -5.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $690.5M | +4.3% |
WMS's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $889M last quarter, up 4.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 22% | -4.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.9% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 25% | -3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 19% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -4.8 points |
WMS has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
WMS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $156.2M | -11% |
| Q2 2026 | $203.2M | -8.6% |
| Q1 2026 | -$13.1M | -$7.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $183.6M | +35% |
| Q3 2025 | $176.4M | +57% |
| Q2 2025 | $222.4M | +77% |
| Q1 2025 | -$5.3M | +$24.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $135.7M | -28% |
WMS has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
WMS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.6% | -1.2M shares |
| 1 year | -3.2% | -2.5M shares |
| 3 years | -4.4% | -3.5M shares |
| 5 years | +5.4% | +3.9M shares |
| Available history | +9.4% | +6.5M shares |
WMS has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $139.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $233.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $92M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
WMS spent $465M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
WMS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
WMS's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
WMS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 20.8 | Neutral |
WMS's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
WMS PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | WMS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 24x | 2.5% below |
| PE % | 37 | 58 | 21 pts below |
WMS is trading at 23x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
WMS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $128.5 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $136.2 | 9.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $143.7 | 14% below |
| 100 week MA | $133.9 | 7.8% below |
| 200 week MA | $132.5 | 6.8% below |
WMS is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 6.8% below its 200-week average.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW has the edge over WMS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
WMS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $39.3 | $81.5 | +107% |
| 2021 | $81.5 | $133.6 | +64% |
| 2022 | $133.6 | $82.8 | -38% |
| 2023 | $82.8 | $140.6 | +70% |
| 2024 | $140.6 | $115.6 | -18% |
| 2025 | $115.6 | $149.6 | +29% |
| 2026 YTD | $149.6 | $123.5 | -17% |
WMS has finished higher in four of the last six years, three of them by more than 50%. It's down 17% so far in 2026.