RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
WCN
Waste Connections, Inc.
WCN has the edge over RDW overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
WCN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
WCN's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
WCN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 33x | $194 | — |
| Cheap | 42x | $186 | -4.2% |
| Current | 43x | $194 | — |
| Fair | 53x | $236 | +22% |
| Expensive | 79x | $354 | +82% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
WCN's PE is in its cheap range at 43x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 33x next year's earnings.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RDW's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
WCN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for WCN, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
WCN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.95 | +33% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.47 | +86% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.15 | +67% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.10 | +69% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.17 | +74% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.40 | -34% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.48 | -26% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.43 | -21% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.39 | -19% |
WCN has the edge over RDW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $109M last quarter, up 5.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
WCN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6B | +7.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.6B | +6.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.4B | +5% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.4B | +7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.2B | +7.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.3B | +11% |
WCN's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $2.6B last quarter, up 7.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | +2.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | -2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 15% | -2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +27 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | -2.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | -8.8% | -20 points |
WCN has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
WCN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $397.1M | +4.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $430.9M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $249M | -24% |
| Q4 2025 | $172.6M | +0.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $380.3M | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $352.9M | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $329.1M | +2.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $172.2M | -27% |
WCN has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
WCN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -2.2% | -5.7M shares |
| 3 years | -2.5% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -3.6% | -9.3M shares |
| Available history | -4.8% | -12.7M shares |
WCN has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $329.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $330.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $284M |
| Q4 2025 | $63.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $441.8M |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
WCN spent $1B buying back its own shares over the past year.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
WCN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.6x | Elevated |
WCN's net debt is about 3.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.7 years a year ago.
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
WCN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 69.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 90.8 | Overbought |
WCN's weekly RSI is 70 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 91 (overbought).
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
WCN PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | WCN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 43x | 24x | 80% above |
| PE % | 30 | 58 | 28 pts below |
WCN is trading at 43x earnings, a 80% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
WCN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $173.0 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $169.0 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $166.1 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $174.7 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $165.1 | 17% above |
WCN has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW has the edge over WCN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
WCN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $90.9 | $101.5 | +12% |
| 2021 | $101.5 | $132.2 | +30% |
| 2022 | $132.2 | $133.4 | +0.9% |
| 2023 | $133.4 | $149.3 | +12% |
| 2024 | $149.3 | $171.3 | +15% |
| 2025 | $171.3 | $178.1 | +4% |
| 2026 YTD | $178.1 | $193.9 | +8.9% |
WCN has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 8.9% so far in 2026.