RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
UNP has a slight edge over RDW overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
UNP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
UNP's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UNP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 19x | $244 | -20% |
| Fair | 22x | $279 | -8.4% |
| Forward | 22x | $304 | — |
| Current | 24x | $304 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $323 | +6.1% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNP's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 22x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RDW's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
UNP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for UNP, with profitability improving.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
UNP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $14.04 | +9.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.84 | +9.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.36 | +7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.15 | +9.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.98 | +8% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.77 | +8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.51 | +8.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.10 | +6% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.09 | +6.1% |
UNP has the edge over RDW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW has the edge over UNP on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
UNP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.2B | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.9B | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.2B | +3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.1B | -0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.2B | +2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.2B | +2.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $6B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.1B | -0.6% |
UNP's revenue has picked up after three years of holding roughly level: $7.2B last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 41% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 40% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 41% | +1.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 39% | 0 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +2.2 points |
UNP has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
UNP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.8B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | +58% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | -14% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | -1.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +27% |
UNP has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
UNP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +500K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +1.3M shares |
| 3 years | -2.5% | -15.3M shares |
| 5 years | -8.6% | -55.8M shares |
| Available history | -16% | -112M shares |
UNP has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $26M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B |
| Q4 2024 | $674M |
UNP has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
UNP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5x | Moderate |
UNP's net debt is about 2.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.5 years a year ago.
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
UNP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
UNP's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UNP PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | UNP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.6% below |
| PE % | 74 | 58 | 16 pts above |
UNP is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
UNP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $288.8 | 5.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $291.8 | 4.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $267.3 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $247.7 | 23% above |
| 200 week MA | $236.5 | 29% above |
UNP has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW's yearly returns have swung widely, from +501% in 2024 to −74% in 2022. It's up 12% so far in 2026.
UNP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $181.4 | $203.4 | +12% |
| 2021 | $203.4 | $245.6 | +21% |
| 2022 | $245.6 | $209.9 | -15% |
| 2023 | $209.9 | $245.6 | +17% |
| 2024 | $245.6 | $229.9 | -6.4% |
| 2025 | $229.9 | $233.4 | +1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $233.4 | $304.2 | +30% |
UNP has the edge over RDW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.