PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
PYPL has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SHOP
Shopify Inc.
SHOP has the edge over PYPL overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
PYPL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
PYPL's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like PYPL.
SHOP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
SHOP's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PYPL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 9.9x | $58.30 | — |
| Current | 11x | $58.30 | — |
| Cheap | 15x | $76.16 | +31% |
| Fair | 26x | $136 | +133% |
| Expensive | 67x | $351 | +503% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PYPL has the edge over SHOP in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
SHOP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 67x | $147 | — |
| Cheap | 78x | $129 | -12% |
| Current | 89x | $147 | — |
| Fair | 107x | $177 | +21% |
| Expensive | 338x | $557 | +280% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SHOP's PE is in its cheap range at 89x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 67x next year's earnings.
PYPL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect PYPL's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
SHOP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for SHOP, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PYPL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.87 | +12% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.24 | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.29 | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.33 | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.41 | +36% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.97 | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.66 | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.45 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.99 | +3.9% |
PYPL has the edge over SHOP on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SHOP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.20 | +33% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.65 | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.49 | -17% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.02 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.94 | -40% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.36 | +27% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.80 | +84% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.24 | +$1.41 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.56 | +1633% |
SHOP's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.65 over the past year, against $2.68 in late 2021.
PYPL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.6B | +2% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.7B | +4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.4B | +7.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.7B | +3.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.4B | +7.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.3B | +5.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.8B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.4B | +4.2% |
PYPL's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $8.6B last quarter, up 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | -1.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | +1.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | +4.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 17% | -4.3 points |
PYPL has the edge over SHOP on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SHOP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.6B | +34% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.2B | +34% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.7B | +31% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8B | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7B | +31% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.4B | +27% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.8B | +31% |
SHOP has the edge over PYPL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +2.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | +3.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | +0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | -1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | -0.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.6% | +4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 17% | +3.1 points |
SHOP's operating margin was 15% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
PYPL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | -17% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.8B | +157% |
| Q1 2026 | $903M | -6.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.2B | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $692M | -49% |
| Q1 2025 | $964M | -45% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.2B | -11% |
PYPL's free cash flow was $6.3B over the past year, up 13% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like PYPL.
SHOP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $816M | +61% |
| Q2 2026 | $654M | +55% |
| Q1 2026 | $476M | +31% |
| Q4 2025 | $715M | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $507M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $422M | +27% |
| Q1 2025 | $363M | +56% |
| Q4 2024 | $611M | +37% |
SHOP has the edge over PYPL on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
PYPL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.7% | -24M shares |
| 1 year | -11% | -102M shares |
| 3 years | -22% | -240M shares |
| 5 years | -28% | -329M shares |
| Available history | -28% | -329M shares |
PYPL has the edge over SHOP on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q2 2025 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B |
PYPL spent $6.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 4% from the year before.
SHOP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -7.2M shares |
| 1 year | -1.7% | -22.1M shares |
| 3 years | -0.4% | -5.1M shares |
| 5 years | +1.1% | +14.5M shares |
| Available history | +11% | +130M shares |
SHOP has 1.3B diluted shares, down 1.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $562M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B |
| Q1 2026 | $491M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
PYPL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.5x | Very low |
PYPL's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA). Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like PYPL.
SHOP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
SHOP has the edge over PYPL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PYPL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 61.9 | Neutral |
PYPL's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 62 (neutral).
SHOP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 51.5 | Neutral |
SHOP's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 52 (neutral).
PYPL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | PYPL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 15% below |
| PE % | 10 | 63 | 53 pts below |
PYPL has the edge over SHOP on valuation relative to its sector.
SHOP PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | SHOP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 89x | 28x | 219% above |
| PE % | 29 | 35 | 6 pts below |
SHOP is trading at 89x earnings, a 219% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
PYPL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $56.5 | 3.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $55.5 | 5% above |
| 50 week MA | $51.5 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $61.6 | 5.4% below |
| 200 week MA | $64.5 | 9.6% below |
PYPL has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 9.6% below its 200-week average.
SHOP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $157.0 | 6.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $143.1 | 2.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $134.4 | 9.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $128.1 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $97.7 | 50% above |
SHOP has the edge over PYPL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
PYPL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $109.4 | $238.6 | +118% |
| 2021 | $238.6 | $192.0 | -20% |
| 2022 | $192.0 | $69.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $69.0 | $61.4 | -11% |
| 2024 | $61.4 | $86.9 | +41% |
| 2025 | $86.9 | $60.0 | -31% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.0 | $58.3 | -2.8% |
PYPL has the edge over SHOP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SHOP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $40.8 | $122.6 | +200% |
| 2021 | $122.6 | $143.9 | +17% |
| 2022 | $143.9 | $33.7 | -77% |
| 2023 | $33.7 | $77.9 | +131% |
| 2024 | $77.9 | $108.2 | +39% |
| 2025 | $108.2 | $170.8 | +58% |
| 2026 YTD | $170.8 | $146.8 | -14% |
SHOP's yearly returns have swung widely, from +200% in 2020 to −77% in 2022. It's down 14% so far in 2026.