PHM
PulteGroup, Inc.
PHM has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA has the edge over PHM overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
PHM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
PHM's balance sheet is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable, but its revenue is under pressure.
TSLA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
TSLA's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
PHM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.8x | $54.71 | -57% |
| Fair | 8.8x | $82.04 | -35% |
| Expensive | 11x | $99.83 | -21% |
| Current | 14x | $127 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $127 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PHM has the edge over TSLA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TSLA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 60x | $54.70 | -86% |
| Fair | 174x | $158 | -60% |
| Forward | 196x | $397 | — |
| Expensive | 415x | $378 | -4.9% |
| Current | 437x | $397 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TSLA's PE is in its expensive range at 437x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 196x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
PHM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect PHM's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TSLA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
TSLA has the edge over PHM on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
PHM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.29 | -0.7% |
| Q3 2026 | $9.36 | -28% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.79 | -27% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.34 | -27% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.12 | -24% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.97 | -4.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.36 | +2.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.16 | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.69 | +25% |
PHM has the edge over TSLA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | +123% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.91 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.08 | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.08 | -47% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.50 | -59% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.73 | -51% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.82 | -53% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.04 | -53% |
TSLA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.91 over the past year, against $4.30 in late 2023.
PHM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4B | -9.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $4B | -9.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.4B | -12% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.6B | -6.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.4B | -1.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.4B | -4.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.9B | -1.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.9B | +15% |
PHM's revenue has slid since its 2022 peak: $4B last quarter, down 9.8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | -1.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -4.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -9.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -4.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 24% | +2 points |
PHM has the edge over TSLA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TSLA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.2B | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.4B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.9B | -3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $28.1B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.5B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.3B | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.7B | +2.1% |
TSLA has the edge over PHM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6% | -3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.2% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.8% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.1% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2% | -2 points |
TSLA's operating margin was 2.6% last quarter, down 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
PHM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $437.2M | -33% |
| Q2 2026 | -$12.9M | -105% |
| Q1 2026 | $134.4M | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | $739.8M | +36% |
| Q3 2025 | $651.1M | +56% |
| Q2 2025 | $253M | -35% |
| Q1 2025 | $104.6M | -51% |
| Q4 2024 | $543.1M | +106% |
PHM has the edge over TSLA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | -62% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.1B | -848% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +117% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $4B | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $146M | -89% |
| Q1 2025 | $664M | +$3.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | -1.6% |
TSLA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $3.3B over the past year.
PHM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -2.7M shares |
| 1 year | -5.2% | -10.3M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -31.8M shares |
| 5 years | -27% | -71.1M shares |
| Available history | -31% | -83.6M shares |
PHM has the edge over TSLA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $350.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $373M |
| Q1 2026 | $308.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $300M |
| Q3 2025 | $300M |
| Q2 2025 | $300M |
| Q1 2025 | $300M |
| Q4 2024 | $320M |
PHM spent $1.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 9.1% from the year before.
TSLA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +15M shares |
| 3 years | +1.4% | +48M shares |
| 5 years | +5.1% | +172M shares |
| Available history | +33% | +886M shares |
TSLA has 3.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
PHM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
PHM's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
TSLA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
TSLA has the edge over PHM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PHM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 66.1 | Neutral |
PHM's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).
TSLA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.6 | Neutral |
TSLA's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
PHM PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | PHM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 18x | 25% below |
| PE % | 99 | 47 | 52 pts above |
PHM has the edge over TSLA on valuation relative to its sector.
TSLA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TSLA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 437x | 18x | 2,324% above |
| PE % | 84 | 47 | 37 pts above |
TSLA is trading at 437x earnings, a 2324% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
PHM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $120.8 | 5% above |
| 20 week MA | $124.3 | 2.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $124.4 | 2% above |
| 100 week MA | $118.8 | 6.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $107.7 | 18% above |
PHM is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 18% above its 200-week average.
TSLA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $376.0 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $364.0 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $393.6 | 1% above |
| 100 week MA | $372.1 | 6.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $296.9 | 34% above |
TSLA is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 34% above its 200-week average.
PHM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $38.8 | $45.2 | +17% |
| 2021 | $45.2 | $54.7 | +21% |
| 2022 | $54.7 | $45.8 | -16% |
| 2023 | $45.8 | $103.2 | +125% |
| 2024 | $103.2 | $109.5 | +6.1% |
| 2025 | $109.5 | $119.2 | +8.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $119.2 | $126.9 | +6.5% |
PHM has the edge over TSLA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TSLA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.7 | $220.6 | +669% |
| 2021 | $220.6 | $355.7 | +61% |
| 2022 | $355.7 | $123.2 | -65% |
| 2023 | $123.2 | $248.5 | +102% |
| 2024 | $248.5 | $431.7 | +74% |
| 2025 | $431.7 | $475.2 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $475.2 | $397.5 | -16% |
TSLA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +669% in 2020 to −65% in 2022. It's down 16% so far in 2026.