PHM

PulteGroup, Inc.

39
Fundamentals33/ 100
Valuation18/ 100
Upside potential32/ 100
Risk potential32/ 100

PHM trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

RIVN

Rivian Automotive, Inc.

53
Fundamentals56/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential61/ 100
Risk potential31/ 100

RIVN has the edge over PHM overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.

PHM Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Under pressure
Stable
Stable
Strong

PHM's balance sheet is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable, but its revenue is under pressure.

RIVN Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Weak
Weak
Unavailable

RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

PHM PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE3.7x7.4x11x15x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE3.7x7.4x11x15x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap5.8x$54.71-57%
Fair8.8x$82.04-35%
Expensive11x$99.83-21%
Current14x$127—
Forward14x$127—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

PHM's PE is in its expensive range at 13.6x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 13.7x.

RIVN PE Valuation

RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

PHM Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Stable
Stable
Stable
Weakening
Limited
Low

Analysts expect PHM's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

RIVN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Losses shrinking
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

RIVN has the edge over PHM on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.

PHM Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+15%$145.68
Downside-32%$86.44

Calculated from the latest close: $126.90 on Nov 12.

PHM trails RIVN on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

RIVN Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+49%$19.04
Downside-31%$8.82

Calculated from the latest close: $12.80 on Nov 12.

RIVN has a better modeled risk to reward balance than PHM, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

PHM Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $11.72Q1 2024: $12.47Q2 2024: $13.09Q3 2024: $13.54Q4 2024: $14.69Q1 2025: $14.16Q2 2025: $13.36Q3 2025: $12.97Q4 2025: $11.12Q1 2026: $10.34Q2 2026: $9.79Q3 2026: $9.36Forward: $9.29
Q4 2023: $11.72Q1 2024: $12.47Q2 2024: $13.09Q3 2024: $13.54Q4 2024: $14.69Q1 2025: $14.16Q2 2025: $13.36Q3 2025: $12.97Q4 2025: $11.12Q1 2026: $10.34Q2 2026: $9.79Q3 2026: $9.36Forward: $9.29
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$9.29-0.7%
Q3 2026$9.36-28%
Q2 2026$9.79-27%
Q1 2026$10.34-27%
Q4 2025$11.12-24%
Q3 2025$12.97-4.2%
Q2 2025$13.36+2.1%
Q1 2025$14.16+14%
Q4 2024$14.69+25%

PHM has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

RIVN Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-5.74Q1 2024: $-5.77Q2 2024: $-5.96Q3 2024: $-5.60Q4 2024: $-4.69Q1 2025: $-3.69Q2 2025: $-3.20Q3 2025: $-3.08Q4 2025: $-3.07Q1 2026: $-2.92Q2 2026: $-2.58Q3 2026: $-2.25
Q4 2023: $-5.74Q1 2024: $-5.77Q2 2024: $-5.96Q3 2024: $-5.60Q4 2024: $-4.69Q1 2025: $-3.69Q2 2025: $-3.20Q3 2025: $-3.08Q4 2025: $-3.07Q1 2026: $-2.92Q2 2026: $-2.58Q3 2026: $-2.25
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026-$2.25+$0.83
Q2 2026-$2.58+$0.62
Q1 2026-$2.92+$0.77
Q4 2025-$3.07+$1.62
Q3 2025-$3.08+$2.52
Q2 2025-$3.20+$2.76
Q1 2025-$3.69+$2.08
Q4 2024-$4.69+$1.05

RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.

PHM Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $4.3BQ1 2024: $3.9BQ2 2024: $4.6BQ3 2024: $4.5BQ4 2024: $4.9BQ1 2025: $3.9BQ2 2025: $4.4BQ3 2025: $4.4BQ4 2025: $4.6BQ1 2026: $3.4BQ2 2026: $4BQ3 2026: $4B
Q4 2023: $4.3BQ1 2024: $3.9BQ2 2024: $4.6BQ3 2024: $4.5BQ4 2024: $4.9BQ1 2025: $3.9BQ2 2025: $4.4BQ3 2025: $4.4BQ4 2025: $4.6BQ1 2026: $3.4BQ2 2026: $4BQ3 2026: $4B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$4B-9.8%
Q2 2026$4B-9.6%
Q1 2026$3.4B-12%
Q4 2025$4.6B-6.3%
Q3 2025$4.4B-1.6%
Q2 2025$4.4B-4.3%
Q1 2025$3.9B-1.4%
Q4 2024$4.9B+15%

PHM's revenue has slid since its 2022 peak: $4B last quarter, down 9.8% from the same quarter a year ago.

RIVN Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $1.3BQ1 2024: $1.2BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $874MQ4 2024: $1.7BQ1 2025: $1.2BQ2 2025: $1.3BQ3 2025: $1.6BQ4 2025: $1.3BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: $1.7BQ3 2026: $2.2B
Q4 2023: $1.3BQ1 2024: $1.2BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $874MQ4 2024: $1.7BQ1 2025: $1.2BQ2 2025: $1.3BQ3 2025: $1.6BQ4 2025: $1.3BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: $1.7BQ3 2026: $2.2B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$2.2B+38%
Q2 2026$1.7B+27%
Q1 2026$1.4B+11%
Q4 2025$1.3B-26%
Q3 2025$1.6B+78%
Q2 2025$1.3B+13%
Q1 2025$1.2B+3%
Q4 2024$1.7B+32%

RIVN has the edge over PHM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

PHM Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $264MQ1 2024: $216MQ2 2024: $386MQ3 2024: $417MQ4 2024: $543MQ1 2025: $105MQ2 2025: $253MQ3 2025: $651MQ4 2025: $740MQ1 2026: $134MQ2 2026: −$13MQ3 2026: $437M
Q4 2023: $264MQ1 2024: $216MQ2 2024: $386MQ3 2024: $417MQ4 2024: $543MQ1 2025: $105MQ2 2025: $253MQ3 2025: $651MQ4 2025: $740MQ1 2026: $134MQ2 2026: −$13MQ3 2026: $437M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$437.2M-33%
Q2 2026-$12.9M-105%
Q1 2026$134.4M+28%
Q4 2025$739.8M+36%
Q3 2025$651.1M+56%
Q2 2025$253M-35%
Q1 2025$104.6M-51%
Q4 2024$543.1M+106%

PHM has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

RIVN Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: −$1.5BQ2 2024: −$1BQ3 2024: −$1.2BQ4 2024: $856MQ1 2025: −$526MQ2 2025: −$398MQ3 2025: −$421MQ4 2025: −$1.1BQ1 2026: −$1.1BQ2 2026: −$849MQ3 2026: −$1.1B
Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: −$1.5BQ2 2024: −$1BQ3 2024: −$1.2BQ4 2024: $856MQ1 2025: −$526MQ2 2025: −$398MQ3 2025: −$421MQ4 2025: −$1.1BQ1 2026: −$1.1BQ2 2026: −$849MQ3 2026: −$1.1B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$1.1B-$703M
Q2 2026-$849M-$451M
Q1 2026-$1.1B-$549M
Q4 2025-$1.1B-234%
Q3 2025-$421M+$732M
Q2 2025-$398M+$639M
Q1 2025-$526M+$997M
Q4 2024$856M+$2.3B

RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.

PHM Total Shares

Q4 2023: 221MQ1 2024: 214MQ2 2024: 211MQ3 2024: 208MQ4 2024: 210MQ1 2025: 204MQ2 2025: 201MQ3 2025: 198MQ4 2025: 200MQ1 2026: 193MQ2 2026: 191MQ3 2026: 188M
Q4 2023: 221MQ1 2024: 214MQ2 2024: 211MQ3 2024: 208MQ4 2024: 210MQ1 2025: 204MQ2 2025: 201MQ3 2025: 198MQ4 2025: 200MQ1 2026: 193MQ2 2026: 191MQ3 2026: 188M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-1.4%-2.7M shares
1 year-5.2%-10.3M shares
3 years-14%-31.8M shares
5 years-27%-71.1M shares
Available history-31%-83.6M shares

PHM has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

RIVN Total Shares

Q4 2023: 947MQ1 2024: 978MQ2 2024: 1BQ3 2024: 1BQ4 2024: 1BQ1 2025: 1.1BQ2 2025: 1.2BQ3 2025: 1.2BQ4 2025: 1.2BQ1 2026: 1.2BQ2 2026: 1.3BQ3 2026: 1.4B
Q4 2023: 947MQ1 2024: 978MQ2 2024: 1BQ3 2024: 1BQ4 2024: 1BQ1 2025: 1.1BQ2 2025: 1.2BQ3 2025: 1.2BQ4 2025: 1.2BQ1 2026: 1.2BQ2 2026: 1.3BQ3 2026: 1.4B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+9.1%+121M shares
1 year+19%+226M shares
3 years+52%+494M shares

RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.

PHM Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -0.5xQ1 2024: 0.0xQ2 2024: 0.1xQ3 2024: 0.1xQ4 2024: -0.4xQ1 2025: 0.1xQ2 2025: 0.1xQ3 2025: 0.0xQ4 2025: -0.6xQ1 2026: -0.0xQ2 2026: 0.2xQ3 2026: 0.2x
Q4 2023: -0.5xQ1 2024: 0.0xQ2 2024: 0.1xQ3 2024: 0.1xQ4 2024: -0.4xQ1 2025: 0.1xQ2 2025: 0.1xQ3 2025: 0.0xQ4 2025: -0.6xQ1 2026: -0.0xQ2 2026: 0.2xQ3 2026: 0.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.2xVery low
Q2 20260.2xVery low
Q1 2026-0.0xNet Cash
Q4 2025-0.6xNet Cash
Q3 20250.0xVery low
Q2 20250.1xVery low
Q1 20250.1xVery low
Q4 2024-0.4xNet Cash

PHM's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

RIVN Net Leverage

RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

PHM Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI53.2Neutral
Stochastic66.1Neutral

PHM's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).

RIVN Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI41.5Neutral
Stochastic25.6Neutral

RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).

PHM PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricPHMSector medianRelative
PE14x18x25% below
PE %994752 pts above

PHM is trading at 14x earnings, a 25% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.

RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

PHM Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$120.85% above
20 week MA$124.32.1% above
50 week MA$124.42% above
100 week MA$118.86.8% above
200 week MA$107.718% above

PHM has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

RIVN Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$13.33.9% below
20 week MA$15.115% below
50 week MA$15.919% below
100 week MA$14.713% below
200 week MA$15.115% below

RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.

PHM Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$38.8$45.2+17%
2021$45.2$54.7+21%
2022$54.7$45.8-16%
2023$45.8$103.2+125%
2024$103.2$109.5+6.1%
2025$109.5$119.2+8.8%
2026 YTD$119.2$126.9+6.5%

PHM has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

RIVN Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2021$130.0$96.8-25%
2022$96.8$19.1-80%
2023$19.1$23.5+23%
2024$23.5$13.7-42%
2025$13.7$20.9+53%
2026 YTD$20.9$12.8-39%

RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.

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