PGY

Pagaya Technologies Ltd.

71
Fundamentals79/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential63/ 100
Risk potential39/ 100

PGY's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.

90
Fundamentals95/ 100
Valuation88/ 100
Upside potential84/ 100
Risk potential21/ 100

PLTR has the edge over PGY overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.

PGY Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Healthy

PGY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

PLTR Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Strong
Strong
Strong

PLTR's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.

PGY PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE4.3x8.5x13x17x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE4.3x8.5x13x17x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward7.5x$16.87—
Current10x$16.87—
Cheap12x$20.59+22%
Fair14x$23.20+38%
Expensive15x$26.10+55%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

PGY has the edge over PLTR in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

PLTR PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE174x349x523x698x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE174x349x523x698x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward75x$172—
Current120x$172—
Cheap165x$236+37%
Fair251x$359+109%
Expensive452x$646+277%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

PLTR's PE is in its cheap range at 120x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 75x next year's earnings.

PGY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PGY, with profitability improving.

PLTR Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Moderate
Moderate

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for PLTR, with profitability improving.

PGY Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+68%$28.36
Downside-39%$10.22

Calculated from the latest close: $16.87 on Nov 12.

PGY trails PLTR on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

PLTR Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+112%$364.26
Downside-21%$136.16

Calculated from the latest close: $171.58 on Nov 12.

PLTR has a better modeled risk to reward balance than PGY, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

PGY Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-2.11Q1 2024: $-1.41Q2 2024: $-1.93Q3 2024: $-2.53Q4 2024: $-5.66Q1 2025: $-5.23Q2 2025: $-3.99Q3 2025: $-2.83Q4 2025: $0.93Q1 2026: $1.11Q2 2026: $1.40Q3 2026: $1.69Forward: $2.24
Q4 2023: $-2.11Q1 2024: $-1.41Q2 2024: $-1.93Q3 2024: $-2.53Q4 2024: $-5.66Q1 2025: $-5.23Q2 2025: $-3.99Q3 2025: $-2.83Q4 2025: $0.93Q1 2026: $1.11Q2 2026: $1.40Q3 2026: $1.69Forward: $2.24
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.24+33%
Q3 2026$1.69+$4.52
Q2 2026$1.40+$5.39
Q1 2026$1.11+$6.34
Q4 2025$0.93+$6.59
Q3 2025-$2.83-$0.30
Q2 2025-$3.99-$2.06
Q1 2025-$5.23-$3.82
Q4 2024-$5.66-$3.55

PGY has returned to profit: it earned $1.69 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.

PLTR Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.09Q1 2024: $0.12Q2 2024: $0.17Q3 2024: $0.20Q4 2024: $0.19Q1 2025: $0.23Q2 2025: $0.30Q3 2025: $0.42Q4 2025: $0.63Q1 2026: $0.89Q2 2026: $1.17Q3 2026: $1.43Forward: $2.30
Q4 2023: $0.09Q1 2024: $0.12Q2 2024: $0.17Q3 2024: $0.20Q4 2024: $0.19Q1 2025: $0.23Q2 2025: $0.30Q3 2025: $0.42Q4 2025: $0.63Q1 2026: $0.89Q2 2026: $1.17Q3 2026: $1.43Forward: $2.30
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.30+61%
Q3 2026$1.43+240%
Q2 2026$1.17+290%
Q1 2026$0.89+287%
Q4 2025$0.63+232%
Q3 2025$0.42+110%
Q2 2025$0.30+76%
Q1 2025$0.23+92%
Q4 2024$0.19+111%

PLTR has the edge over PGY on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

PGY Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $210MQ1 2024: $245MQ2 2024: $250MQ3 2024: $257MQ4 2024: $279MQ1 2025: $290MQ2 2025: $326MQ3 2025: $350MQ4 2025: $335MQ1 2026: $318MQ2 2026: $387MQ3 2026: $390M
Q4 2023: $210MQ1 2024: $245MQ2 2024: $250MQ3 2024: $257MQ4 2024: $279MQ1 2025: $290MQ2 2025: $326MQ3 2025: $350MQ4 2025: $335MQ1 2026: $318MQ2 2026: $387MQ3 2026: $390M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$390.5M+12%
Q2 2026$387M+19%
Q1 2026$317.9M+9.6%
Q4 2025$334.8M+20%
Q3 2025$350.2M+36%
Q2 2025$326.4M+30%
Q1 2025$290M+18%
Q4 2024$279.4M+33%

PGY's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $390M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.

PLTR Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $608MQ1 2024: $634MQ2 2024: $678MQ3 2024: $726MQ4 2024: $828MQ1 2025: $884MQ2 2025: $1BQ3 2025: $1.2BQ4 2025: $1.4BQ1 2026: $1.6BQ2 2026: $1.9BQ3 2026: $2.3B
Q4 2023: $608MQ1 2024: $634MQ2 2024: $678MQ3 2024: $726MQ4 2024: $828MQ1 2025: $884MQ2 2025: $1BQ3 2025: $1.2BQ4 2025: $1.4BQ1 2026: $1.6BQ2 2026: $1.9BQ3 2026: $2.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$2.3B+96%
Q2 2026$1.9B+93%
Q1 2026$1.6B+85%
Q4 2025$1.4B+70%
Q3 2025$1.2B+63%
Q2 2025$1B+48%
Q1 2025$883.9M+39%
Q4 2024$827.5M+36%

PLTR has the edge over PGY on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

PGY Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $14MQ1 2024: $15MQ2 2024: $11MQ3 2024: −$6MQ4 2024: $28MQ1 2025: $31MQ2 2025: $54MQ3 2025: $64MQ4 2025: $77MQ1 2026: $40MQ2 2026: $71MQ3 2026: $46M
Q4 2023: $14MQ1 2024: $15MQ2 2024: $11MQ3 2024: −$6MQ4 2024: $28MQ1 2025: $31MQ2 2025: $54MQ3 2025: $64MQ4 2025: $77MQ1 2026: $40MQ2 2026: $71MQ3 2026: $46M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$45.8M-28%
Q2 2026$71.3M+33%
Q1 2026$40M+31%
Q4 2025$76.7M+173%
Q3 2025$63.8M+$69.5M
Q2 2025$53.6M+382%
Q1 2025$30.7M+100%
Q4 2024$28.1M+96%

PGY generated $234M in free cash flow over the past year, up 33% from the year before.

PLTR Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $296MQ1 2024: $127MQ2 2024: $141MQ3 2024: $416MQ4 2024: $457MQ1 2025: $304MQ2 2025: $532MQ3 2025: $501MQ4 2025: $764MQ1 2026: $892MQ2 2026: $1.2BQ3 2026: $1.2B
Q4 2023: $296MQ1 2024: $127MQ2 2024: $141MQ3 2024: $416MQ4 2024: $457MQ1 2025: $304MQ2 2025: $532MQ3 2025: $501MQ4 2025: $764MQ1 2026: $892MQ2 2026: $1.2BQ3 2026: $1.2B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$1.2B+139%
Q2 2026$1.2B+126%
Q1 2026$891.8M+193%
Q4 2025$764M+67%
Q3 2025$500.9M+20%
Q2 2025$531.6M+276%
Q1 2025$304.1M+140%
Q4 2024$457.2M+54%

PLTR has the edge over PGY on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

PGY Total Shares

Q4 2023: 63MQ1 2024: 65MQ2 2024: 72MQ3 2024: 73MQ4 2024: 71MQ1 2025: 77MQ2 2025: 80MQ3 2025: 91MQ4 2025: 83MQ1 2026: 97MQ2 2026: 97MQ3 2026: 98M
Q4 2023: 63MQ1 2024: 65MQ2 2024: 72MQ3 2024: 73MQ4 2024: 71MQ1 2025: 77MQ2 2025: 80MQ3 2025: 91MQ4 2025: 83MQ1 2026: 97MQ2 2026: 97MQ3 2026: 98M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+1.3%+1.2M shares
1 year+8.2%+7.4M shares
3 years+62%+37.8M shares
5 years+510%+82.3M shares

PGY has 98M diluted shares, up 8.2% from a year ago.

PLTR Total Shares

Q4 2023: 2.3BQ1 2024: 2.4BQ2 2024: 2.4BQ3 2024: 2.5BQ4 2024: 2.5BQ1 2025: 2.6BQ2 2025: 2.6BQ3 2025: 2.6BQ4 2025: 2.6BQ1 2026: 2.6BQ2 2026: 2.6BQ3 2026: 2.6B
Q4 2023: 2.3BQ1 2024: 2.4BQ2 2024: 2.4BQ3 2024: 2.5BQ4 2024: 2.5BQ1 2025: 2.6BQ2 2025: 2.6BQ3 2025: 2.6BQ4 2025: 2.6BQ1 2026: 2.6BQ2 2026: 2.6BQ3 2026: 2.6B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.2%+5.2M shares
1 year+0.1%+2.9M shares
3 years+11%+248M shares
5 years+31%+610M shares
Available history+184%+1.7B shares

PLTR has the edge over PGY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

PGY Net Leverage

Q1 2024: -16.9xQ2 2024: -0.0xQ3 2024: 1.3xQ4 2024: 1.4xQ1 2025: 1.0xQ2 2025: -0.2xQ3 2025: 0.3xQ4 2025: 0.4xQ1 2026: 0.3xQ2 2026: 0.4xQ3 2026: 0.6x
Q1 2024: -16.9xQ2 2024: -0.0xQ3 2024: 1.3xQ4 2024: 1.4xQ1 2025: 1.0xQ2 2025: -0.2xQ3 2025: 0.3xQ4 2025: 0.4xQ1 2026: 0.3xQ2 2026: 0.4xQ3 2026: 0.6x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.6xVery low
Q2 20260.4xVery low
Q1 20260.3xVery low
Q4 20250.4xVery low
Q3 20250.3xVery low
Q2 2025-0.2xNet Cash
Q1 20251.0xVery low
Q4 20241.4xHealthy

PGY's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

PLTR Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -5.4xQ1 2024: -2.3xQ2 2024: -1.6xQ3 2024: -1.9xQ4 2024: -6.1xQ1 2025: -2.3xQ2 2025: -1.6xQ3 2025: -1.9xQ4 2025: -1.0xQ1 2026: -1.1xQ2 2026: -0.8xQ3 2026: -1.1x
Q4 2023: -5.4xQ1 2024: -2.3xQ2 2024: -1.6xQ3 2024: -1.9xQ4 2024: -6.1xQ1 2025: -2.3xQ2 2025: -1.6xQ3 2025: -1.9xQ4 2025: -1.0xQ1 2026: -1.1xQ2 2026: -0.8xQ3 2026: -1.1x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-1.1xNet Cash
Q2 2026-0.8xNet Cash
Q1 2026-1.1xNet Cash
Q4 2025-1.0xNet Cash
Q3 2025-1.9xNet Cash
Q2 2025-1.6xNet Cash
Q1 2025-2.3xNet Cash
Q4 2024-6.1xNet Cash

PLTR has the edge over PGY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

PGY Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.3Neutral
Stochastic24.3Neutral

PGY's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 24 (neutral).

PLTR Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI51.4Neutral
Stochastic47.4Neutral

PLTR's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 47 (neutral).

PGY PE vs Technology Sector

MetricPGYSector medianRelative
PE10x28x64% below
PE %04242 pts below

PGY has the edge over PLTR on valuation relative to its sector.

PLTR PE vs Technology Sector

MetricPLTRSector medianRelative
PE120x28x331% above
PE %13837 pts below

PLTR is trading at 120x earnings, a 331% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.

PGY Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$18.06.1% below
20 week MA$19.112% below
50 week MA$17.42.8% below
100 week MA$18.810% below
200 week MA$16.71.1% above

PGY has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 1.1% above its 200-week average.

PLTR Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$185.87.6% below
20 week MA$167.62.4% above
50 week MA$157.19.2% above
100 week MA$143.819% above
200 week MA$83.3106% above

PLTR has the edge over PGY on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

PGY Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2021$117.2$118.7+1.2%
2022$118.7$10.1-92%
2023$10.1$16.6+65%
2024$16.6$9.65-42%
2025$9.65$21.9+126%
2026 YTD$21.9$16.9-23%

PGY's yearly returns have swung widely, from +126% in 2025 to −92% in 2022. It's down 23% so far in 2026.

PLTR Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$9.20$27.8+202%
2021$27.8$18.9-32%
2022$18.9$6.29-67%
2023$6.29$17.2+173%
2024$17.2$79.1+361%
2025$79.1$188.7+139%
2026 YTD$188.7$171.6-9.1%

PLTR has the edge over PGY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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