PAG
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
PAG has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN has the edge over PAG overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
PAG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy |
PAG's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PAG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.1x | $97.13 | -54% |
| Fair | 9.9x | $136 | -36% |
| Expensive | 12x | $168 | -21% |
| Forward | 15x | $213 | — |
| Current | 16x | $213 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PAG's PE is in its expensive range at 16x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 15x.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PAG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect PAG's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
RIVN has the edge over PAG on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.
PAG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.91 | +1.4% |
| Q3 2026 | $13.71 | -3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.58 | -5.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.40 | -5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.50 | -1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.20 | +8.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.36 | +5.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.19 | -1.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.74 | -11% |
PAG has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.
PAG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.4B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.5B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.9B | +3.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.8B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.7B | +1.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.7B | -0.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.6B | +2.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.7B | +6.2% |
PAG's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $8.4B last quarter, up 9.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.6% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.1% | -0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.5% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4.2% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.3% | +0.7 points |
PAG has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN has the edge over PAG on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
PAG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $223.3M | -26% |
| Q2 2026 | $131.8M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $152.4M | -26% |
| Q4 2025 | $25.1M | -81% |
| Q3 2025 | $300.4M | +58% |
| Q2 2025 | $118.9M | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $206.1M | -42% |
| Q4 2024 | $131.6M | +$163.4M |
PAG has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
PAG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -60K shares |
| 1 year | -0.5% | -356K shares |
| 3 years | -2.4% | -1.6M shares |
| 5 years | -17% | -13.8M shares |
| Available history | -20% | -16.8M shares |
PAG has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $26.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $40.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $7.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $71.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $39.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $600,000 |
PAG spent $66M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 44% from the year before.
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
PAG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.2x | Healthy |
PAG's net debt is about 1.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from a year a year ago.
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PAG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 66.3 | Neutral |
PAG's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
PAG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | PAG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 18x | 14% below |
| PE % | 97 | 47 | 50 pts above |
PAG is trading at 16x earnings, a 14% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PAG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $209.0 | 2% above |
| 20 week MA | $210.1 | 1.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $182.0 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $173.6 | 23% above |
| 200 week MA | $163.6 | 30% above |
PAG has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
PAG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $50.7 | $57.7 | +14% |
| 2021 | $57.7 | $102.9 | +78% |
| 2022 | $102.9 | $112.3 | +9.2% |
| 2023 | $112.3 | $160.5 | +43% |
| 2024 | $160.5 | $155.1 | -3.3% |
| 2025 | $155.1 | $165.6 | +6.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $165.6 | $213.3 | +29% |
PAG has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.