ORC
Orchid Island Capital, Inc.
ORC's fundamentals are strong, but it looks expensive: trading at 19x earnings, above its usual 14x. Analysts expect earnings to decline, though they disagree widely on how much.
ORC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ORC's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for real estate companies like ORC.
ORC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 4.6x | $4.67 | — |
| Cheap | 5.4x | $1.36 | -71% |
| Fair | 14x | $3.53 | -24% |
| Current | 19x | $4.67 | — |
| Expensive | 41x | $10.36 | +122% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ORC's PE is in its fair range at 19x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 4.6x, in its cheap range.
ORC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Decline | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ORC's revenue to grow, but its earnings to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ORC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.01 | +304% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.25 | -46% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.68 | +888% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.95 | +157% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.24 | +118% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.46 | -60% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.17 | +$0.95 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.37 | +$0.81 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.57 | +$1.30 |
ORC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.25 over the past year, against $5.20 in early 2021.
ORC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $59.1M | +120% |
| Q2 2026 | $60M | +159% |
| Q1 2026 | $57.1M | +189% |
| Q4 2025 | $38.5M | +373% |
| Q3 2025 | $26.9M | +7817% |
| Q4 2022 | $2.4M | -94% |
| Q3 2022 | $14.2M | -56% |
| Q2 2022 | $27.1M | -2.2% |
ORC's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $59M last quarter, up 120% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 89% | +9.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 89% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 87% | +8.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 85% | +38 points |
| Q3 2025 | 80% | +1235 points |
| Q2 2025 | 78% | N/A |
| Q1 2025 | 79% | N/A |
| Q4 2024 | 46% | N/A |
ORC's operating margin was 89% last quarter, up 9.5 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
ORC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $65.1M | +133% |
| Q2 2026 | $81.6M | +342% |
| Q1 2026 | $48.6M | +89% |
| Q4 2025 | $48.3M | +176% |
| Q3 2025 | $28M | +$42.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $18.4M | -4.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $25.8M | -43% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.5M | +$58.3M |
ORC's free cash flow was $244M over the past year, up 172% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for real estate companies like ORC.
ORC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -2.5M shares |
| 1 year | +73% | +84M shares |
| 3 years | +416% | +160M shares |
| 5 years | +1308% | +184M shares |
| Available history | +1472% | +186M shares |
ORC has 198M diluted shares, up 73% from a year ago, despite $39M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $31.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $7.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $659,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $16,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $16,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $7.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $69,000 |
| Q4 2024 | $15,000 |
ORC spent $39M buying back its own shares over the past year, about five times what it spent the year before.
ORC Net Leverage
ORC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 20.9 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 5.0 | Oversold |
ORC's weekly RSI is 21 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
ORC PE vs Real Estate Sector
| Metric | ORC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 24x | 22% below |
| PE % | 64 | 23 | 41 pts above |
ORC is trading at 19x earnings, a 22% discount to the Real Estate sector's median of 24x.
ORC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $5.04 | 7.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $5.97 | 22% below |
| 50 week MA | $6.72 | 31% below |
| 100 week MA | $7.07 | 34% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.03 | 42% below |
ORC is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 42% below its 200-week average.
ORC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.8 | $26.9 | -9.9% |
| 2021 | $26.9 | $23.3 | -13% |
| 2022 | $23.3 | $11.1 | -52% |
| 2023 | $11.1 | $8.43 | -24% |
| 2024 | $8.43 | $7.88 | -6.5% |
| 2025 | $7.88 | $7.32 | -7.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.32 | $4.67 | -36% |
ORC has finished every year since 2020 lower, and it's down 36% so far in 2026.