NWE
Northwestern Energy Group Inc
NWE's fundamentals are weak and it looks expensive: trading at 32x earnings, about twice its usual 17x. Its downside scenario is about three times its upside.
NWE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak |
NWE's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, but its cash flow and balance sheet are weak.
NWE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $40.66 | -52% |
| Fair | 17x | $45.15 | -47% |
| Expensive | 19x | $50.93 | -40% |
| Forward | 21x | $85.60 | — |
| Current | 32x | $85.60 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NWE's PE is in its expensive range at 32x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings.
NWE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NWE, with profitability holding steady.
NWE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.03 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.65 | -25% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.77 | -25% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.72 | -29% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.94 | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.53 | -4.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.67 | +7% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.84 | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.65 | +13% |
NWE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.65 over the past year, against $3.98 in late 2019.
NWE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $423.8M | +9.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $392.6M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $497.6M | +6.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $414.3M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $387M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $342.7M | +7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $466.6M | -1.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $373.5M | +4.9% |
NWE's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $424M last quarter, up 9.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | -3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | -1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 23% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -10 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | +1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | +5.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 25% | -4.4 points |
NWE's operating margin was 18% last quarter, down 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NWE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$28.4M | -$1.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$114.9M | -$44.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $43.3M | -29% |
| Q4 2025 | -$93.7M | -$7.8M |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | +$6.3M |
| Q2 2025 | -$70.6M | +$5.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $61.3M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | -$85.9M | +$11.5M |
NWE has burned cash in most quarters: −$194M over the past year, against −$122M the year before.
NWE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +28.9K shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +250K shares |
| 3 years | +2.2% | +1.3M shares |
| 5 years | +19% | +9.9M shares |
| Available history | +22% | +11M shares |
NWE has 62M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
NWE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.3x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 6.2x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 6.0x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 6.0x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.6x | High |
NWE's net debt is about 6.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 5.5 years a year ago.
NWE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 75.6 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 95.2 | Overbought |
NWE's weekly RSI is 76 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 95 (overbought).
NWE PE vs Utilities Sector
| Metric | NWE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32x | 20x | 58% above |
| PE % | 100 | 44 | 56 pts above |
NWE is trading at 32x earnings, a 58% premium to the Utilities sector's median of 20x.
NWE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $76.6 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $73.1 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $70.5 | 21% above |
| 100 week MA | $63.3 | 35% above |
| 200 week MA | $58.2 | 47% above |
NWE is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 47% above its 200-week average.
NWE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $71.6 | $56.6 | -21% |
| 2021 | $56.6 | $55.5 | -2% |
| 2022 | $55.5 | $58.5 | +5.4% |
| 2023 | $58.5 | $50.9 | -13% |
| 2024 | $50.9 | $53.0 | +4.1% |
| 2025 | $53.0 | $64.3 | +21% |
| 2026 YTD | $64.3 | $85.6 | +33% |
NWE is up 33% so far in 2026, after finishing lower in three of the previous six years.