NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
TMDX
TransMedics Group, Inc.
TMDX has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
TMDX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
TMDX's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO has the edge over TMDX in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TMDX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 21x | $75.93 | -17% |
| Current | 25x | $92.00 | — |
| Forward | 41x | $92.00 | — |
| Fair | 59x | $217 | +136% |
| Expensive | 91x | $335 | +264% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TMDX's PE is in its cheap range at 25x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 41x.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TMDX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
TMDX has the edge over NVO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings expectations.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.89 over the past year, up 4.9% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since late 2020.
TMDX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.22 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.66 | +48% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.86 | +100% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.37 | +221% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.87 | +382% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.47 | +163% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.93 | +4725% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.36 | +$1.70 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.01 | +$1.78 |
TMDX's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.66 over the past year, up 48% from the year before, and higher year over year for 16 quarters in a row.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO's revenue is growing: $11.7B last quarter, up 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over TMDX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TMDX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $203M | +41% |
| Q2 2026 | $189.9M | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $173.9M | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $160.8M | +32% |
| Q3 2025 | $143.8M | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $157.4M | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $143.5M | +48% |
| Q4 2024 | $121.6M | +50% |
TMDX has the edge over NVO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -2.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | -11 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.6% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | +13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 19% | +6.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.1% | +3.9 points |
TMDX's operating margin was 14% last quarter, down 2.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $7.3B over the past year.
TMDX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $27.6M | -55% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.2M | -88% |
| Q1 2026 | -$12.1M | +$17.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $19M | +214% |
| Q3 2025 | $61.9M | +$103.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $82.5M | +4122% |
| Q1 2025 | -$29.9M | +$17.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $6.1M | +$39.6M |
TMDX has the edge over NVO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has the edge over TMDX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
TMDX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +124K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +85.2K shares |
| 3 years | +25% | +8.2M shares |
| 5 years | +47% | +13.1M shares |
| Available history | +92% | +19.6M shares |
TMDX has 41M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
TMDX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.9x | Net Cash |
TMDX has the edge over NVO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
TMDX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 54.9 | Neutral |
TMDX's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 55 (neutral).
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO has the edge over TMDX on valuation relative to its sector.
TMDX PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | TMDX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 26x | 2.7% below |
| PE % | 29 | 29 | Same percentile |
TMDX is trading at 25x earnings, in line with the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
TMDX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $78.8 | 17% above |
| 20 week MA | $80.4 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $98.1 | 6.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $99.8 | 7.9% below |
| 200 week MA | $96.2 | 4.4% below |
TMDX has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has the edge over TMDX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TMDX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.6 | $18.8 | +1% |
| 2021 | $18.8 | $21.0 | +12% |
| 2022 | $21.0 | $59.5 | +183% |
| 2023 | $59.5 | $78.9 | +33% |
| 2024 | $78.9 | $61.0 | -23% |
| 2025 | $61.0 | $124.2 | +104% |
| 2026 YTD | $124.2 | $92.0 | -26% |
TMDX has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 26% so far in 2026.