NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
TAK
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited
TAK has the edge over NVO overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
TAK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
TAK's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO's PE is 10x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
TAK PE Valuation
TAK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TAK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect TAK's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
TAK has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 4.9% for NVO versus TAK up 83%.
TAK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.35 | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.27 | -6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.21 | -28% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.41 | +17% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.57 | +50% |
| Q2 2024 | $0.29 | -52% |
| Q1 2024 | $0.29 | -54% |
| Q4 2023 | $0.35 | -36% |
TAK earned $0.75 per share over the past year, up 83% from the year before.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO has the edge over TAK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over TAK on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TAK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.4B | +6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.6B | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $7B | +5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.6B | +6% |
| Q3 2025 | $7B | -5.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.9B | -8.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.6B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.2B | +3% |
TAK's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $7.4B last quarter, up 6.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17% | +11 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | N/A |
| Q1 2026 | 4.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | +23 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.2% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | -7.1% | -6.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.8% | -3.6 points |
TAK's operating margin was 17% last quarter, up 11 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $7.3B over the past year.
TAK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $462.7M | -47% |
| Q1 2026 | $63.5M | -92% |
| Q4 2025 | $945.7M | -54% |
| Q3 2025 | $2B | +73% |
| Q2 2025 | $879.7M | +735% |
| Q2 2025 | $879.7M | +735% |
| Q1 2025 | $811.3M | -40% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | +372% |
TAK still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $3.5B over the past year.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has the edge over TAK on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
TAK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +1.7% | +54.5M shares |
| 3 years | +2.5% | +78.8M shares |
| 5 years | +1.5% | +48.6M shares |
| Available history | +3% | +94M shares |
TAK has 3.2B diluted shares, up 1.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $323.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $313.3M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO has the edge over TAK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TAK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q3 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q2 2024 | 4.2x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 4.0x | High |
TAK's net debt is about 3.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.6 years a year ago.
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
TAK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 73.9 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 89.0 | Overbought |
TAK's weekly RSI is 74 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 89 (overbought).
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO is trading at 10x earnings, a 60% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x, though its earnings don't support one.
TAK PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | TAK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 26x | — |
TAK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
TAK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $19.8 | 6.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $18.5 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $17.4 | 21% above |
| 100 week MA | $15.9 | 33% above |
| 200 week MA | $15.3 | 38% above |
TAK has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.
TAK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $19.8 | $18.1 | -8.7% |
| 2021 | $18.1 | $13.8 | -24% |
| 2022 | $13.8 | $15.5 | +13% |
| 2023 | $15.5 | $14.3 | -8.2% |
| 2024 | $14.3 | $13.3 | -7% |
| 2025 | $13.3 | $15.7 | +18% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.7 | $21.1 | +35% |
TAK has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.