NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA has the edge over SPSC overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
SPSC
SPS Commerce, Inc.
SPSC's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
NVDA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
NVDA's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
SPSC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
SPSC's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
NVDA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 12x | $166 | — |
| Current | 21x | $166 | — |
| Cheap | 44x | $345 | +108% |
| Fair | 65x | $511 | +207% |
| Expensive | 93x | $734 | +342% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVDA has the edge over SPSC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
SPSC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $82.25 | — |
| Current | 36x | $82.25 | — |
| Cheap | 49x | $110 | +33% |
| Fair | 87x | $196 | +138% |
| Expensive | 104x | $235 | +186% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SPSC's PE is in its cheap range at 36x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings.
NVDA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Broad | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for NVDA, but weaker profitability.
SPSC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
SPSC has the edge over NVDA on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
NVDA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.77 | +74% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.91 | +125% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.53 | +111% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.90 | +67% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.03 | +59% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.51 | +65% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.10 | +81% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.94 | +147% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.54 | +234% |
NVDA has the edge over SPSC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SPSC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.36 | +137% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.26 | +1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.08 | -4.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.41 | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.46 | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.23 | +6.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.18 | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.14 | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.04 | +16% |
SPSC earned $2.26 per share over the past year, up 1.3% from the year before.
NVDA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $96.2B | +106% |
| Q2 2026 | $81.6B | +85% |
| Q1 2026 | $68.1B | +73% |
| Q4 2025 | $57B | +62% |
| Q3 2025 | $46.7B | +56% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.1B | +69% |
| Q1 2025 | $39.3B | +78% |
| Q4 2024 | $35.1B | +94% |
NVDA has the edge over SPSC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 66% | +5.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 66% | +17 points |
| Q1 2026 | 65% | +3.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 63% | +0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 61% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 49% | -16 points |
| Q1 2025 | 61% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 62% | +4.9 points |
NVDA has the edge over SPSC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SPSC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $197.6M | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $197.8M | +5.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $192.1M | +5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $192.7M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $189.9M | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $187.4M | +22% |
| Q1 2025 | $181.5M | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $170.9M | +18% |
SPSC's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $198M last quarter, up 4.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.3% | -9.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | +0.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | +4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | -1.3 points |
SPSC's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.8 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
NVDA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $21.4B | +59% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.6B | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $34.9B | +124% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.1B | +32% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.5B | -0.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $26.2B | +75% |
| Q1 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q3 2024 | $13.5B | +113% |
NVDA's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for six years: $127B over the past year, up 76% from the year before.
SPSC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $58.5M | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.4M | +124% |
| Q1 2026 | $48.5M | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $38.2M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $54.6M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.7M | +5.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $33.8M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $34.3M | +21% |
SPSC generated $203M in free cash flow over the past year, up 37% from the year before.
NVDA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -106M shares |
| 1 year | -1% | -247M shares |
| 3 years | -2.8% | -705M shares |
| 5 years | -4.1% | -1B shares |
| Available history | -1.8% | -435M shares |
NVDA has 24.3B diluted shares, down 1% from a year ago, with $55.3B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.7B |
| Q2 2026 | $19.3B |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B |
| Q4 2025 | $12.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $9.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $14.1B |
| Q1 2025 | $7.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $11B |
NVDA spent $55.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 30% from the year before.
SPSC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1% | -368K shares |
| 1 year | -4.7% | -1.8M shares |
| 3 years | -3.7% | -1.4M shares |
| 5 years | -2.2% | -806K shares |
| Available history | +0.6% | +207K shares |
SPSC has the edge over NVDA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $48.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $51.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $47.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $24.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $30M |
| Q2 2025 | $19.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $40M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
SPSC spent $172M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 92% from the year before.
NVDA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
NVDA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
SPSC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
SPSC has the edge over NVDA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVDA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 33.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.1 | Oversold |
NVDA's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
SPSC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 55.5 | Neutral |
SPSC's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 56 (neutral).
NVDA PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NVDA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 28x | 25% below |
| PE % | 0 | 35 | 35 pts below |
NVDA has the edge over SPSC on valuation relative to its sector.
SPSC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | SPSC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 36x | 28x | 31% above |
| PE % | 8 | 35 | 27 pts below |
SPSC is trading at 36x earnings, a 31% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
NVDA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $208.9 | 20% below |
| 20 week MA | $212.0 | 22% below |
| 50 week MA | $199.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $175.1 | 5.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $123.6 | 34% above |
NVDA has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 34% above its 200-week average.
SPSC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $84.2 | 2.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $77.9 | 5.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $71.5 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $101.7 | 19% below |
| 200 week MA | $139.3 | 41% below |
SPSC has the edge over NVDA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVDA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $5.92 | $13.0 | +119% |
| 2021 | $13.0 | $29.6 | +128% |
| 2022 | $29.6 | $15.2 | -49% |
| 2023 | $15.2 | $49.5 | +226% |
| 2024 | $49.5 | $137.0 | +177% |
| 2025 | $137.0 | $190.5 | +39% |
| 2026 YTD | $190.5 | $166.2 | -13% |
NVDA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +226% in 2023 to −49% in 2022. It's down 13% so far in 2026.
SPSC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $56.1 | $110.3 | +97% |
| 2021 | $110.3 | $143.8 | +30% |
| 2022 | $143.8 | $127.3 | -11% |
| 2023 | $127.3 | $193.8 | +52% |
| 2024 | $193.8 | $185.5 | -4.3% |
| 2025 | $185.5 | $91.9 | -50% |
| 2026 YTD | $91.9 | $82.3 | -11% |
SPSC has the edge over NVDA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.