NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA has the edge over SMCI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
SMCI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
NVDA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
NVDA's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
SMCI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Weak | |
| Strong |
SMCI's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently strong, but its cash flow is weak.
NVDA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 12x | $166 | — |
| Current | 21x | $166 | — |
| Cheap | 44x | $345 | +108% |
| Fair | 65x | $511 | +207% |
| Expensive | 93x | $734 | +342% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVDA's PE is in its cheap range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings.
SMCI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 4.3x | $26.99 | — |
| Current | 5.7x | $26.99 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $61.50 | +128% |
| Fair | 19x | $88.86 | +229% |
| Expensive | 26x | $125 | +363% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SMCI's PE is in its cheap range at 5.7x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 4.3x next year's earnings.
NVDA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Broad | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for NVDA, but weaker profitability.
SMCI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
SMCI has the edge over NVDA on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
NVDA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.77 | +74% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.91 | +125% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.53 | +111% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.90 | +67% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.03 | +59% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.51 | +65% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.10 | +81% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.94 | +147% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.54 | +234% |
NVDA has the edge over SMCI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SMCI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.22 | +31% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.75 | +274% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.26 | +94% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.91 | +4.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.36 | -41% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.27 | -45% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.68 | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.83 | +2.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.32 | +81% |
SMCI's earnings per share have jumped to their highest in seven years: $4.75 over the past year, up from $1.27 the year before.
NVDA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $96.2B | +106% |
| Q2 2026 | $81.6B | +85% |
| Q1 2026 | $68.1B | +73% |
| Q4 2025 | $57B | +62% |
| Q3 2025 | $46.7B | +56% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.1B | +69% |
| Q1 2025 | $39.3B | +78% |
| Q4 2024 | $35.1B | +94% |
NVDA has the edge over SMCI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 66% | +5.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 66% | +17 points |
| Q1 2026 | 65% | +3.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 63% | +0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 61% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 49% | -16 points |
| Q1 2025 | 61% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 62% | +4.9 points |
NVDA has the edge over SMCI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SMCI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.9B | +298% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.1B | +93% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.2B | +123% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.7B | +123% |
| Q3 2025 | $5B | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.8B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.7B | +55% |
SMCI's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $19.9B last quarter, up 298% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 10% | +6.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +9.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.1% | +2.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.7% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.6% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4% | -1.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2% | -6.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.5% | -3.7 points |
SMCI's operating margin was 10% last quarter, up 6.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVDA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $21.4B | +59% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.6B | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $34.9B | +124% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.1B | +32% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.5B | -0.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $26.2B | +75% |
| Q1 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q3 2024 | $13.5B | +113% |
NVDA has the edge over SMCI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SMCI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$475.6M | +$474.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $718.7M | -15% |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.7B | -1227% |
| Q4 2025 | -$45.1M | +$222.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$949.8M | -360% |
| Q2 2025 | $840.9M | +$1.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $594.1M | +$2.2B |
| Q4 2024 | -$267.3M | +$342.5M |
SMCI's free cash flow was −$6.5B over the past year, against $218M the year before.
NVDA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -106M shares |
| 1 year | -1% | -247M shares |
| 3 years | -2.8% | -705M shares |
| 5 years | -4.1% | -1B shares |
| Available history | -1.8% | -435M shares |
NVDA has the edge over SMCI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.7B |
| Q2 2026 | $19.3B |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B |
| Q4 2025 | $12.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $9.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $14.1B |
| Q1 2025 | $7.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $11B |
NVDA spent $55.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 30% from the year before.
SMCI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.5% | +52M shares |
| 1 year | +13% | +86.1M shares |
| 3 years | +31% | +178M shares |
| 5 years | +42% | +220M shares |
| Available history | +44% | +229M shares |
SMCI has 749M diluted shares, up 13% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | $12M |
| Q1 2021 | $43.1M |
| Q4 2020 | $46.4M |
NVDA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
NVDA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
SMCI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
SMCI has the edge over NVDA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVDA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 33.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.1 | Oversold |
NVDA's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
SMCI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.1 | Oversold |
SMCI's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
NVDA PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NVDA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 28x | 25% below |
| PE % | 0 | 35 | 35 pts below |
NVDA is trading at 21x earnings, a 25% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
SMCI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | SMCI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.7x | 28x | 80% below |
| PE % | 0 | 35 | 35 pts below |
SMCI has the edge over NVDA on valuation relative to its sector.
NVDA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $208.9 | 20% below |
| 20 week MA | $212.0 | 22% below |
| 50 week MA | $199.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $175.1 | 5.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $123.6 | 34% above |
NVDA has the edge over SMCI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SMCI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $35.3 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $34.2 | 21% below |
| 50 week MA | $32.3 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $36.9 | 27% below |
| 200 week MA | $39.8 | 32% below |
SMCI is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 32% below its 200-week average.
NVDA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $5.92 | $13.0 | +119% |
| 2021 | $13.0 | $29.6 | +128% |
| 2022 | $29.6 | $15.2 | -49% |
| 2023 | $15.2 | $49.5 | +226% |
| 2024 | $49.5 | $137.0 | +177% |
| 2025 | $137.0 | $190.5 | +39% |
| 2026 YTD | $190.5 | $166.2 | -13% |
NVDA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +226% in 2023 to −49% in 2022. It's down 13% so far in 2026.
SMCI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.41 | $3.05 | +27% |
| 2021 | $3.05 | $4.27 | +40% |
| 2022 | $4.27 | $8.22 | +93% |
| 2023 | $8.22 | $28.4 | +246% |
| 2024 | $28.4 | $32.0 | +12% |
| 2025 | $32.0 | $30.6 | -4.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $30.6 | $27.0 | -12% |
SMCI has the edge over NVDA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.