NVAX
Novavax, Inc.
NVAX's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH has the edge over NVAX overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
NVAX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
NVAX's balance sheet is currently strong, but its revenue, profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
UNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
NVAX PE Valuation
NVAX has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 116x next year's earnings.
UNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $405 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $325 | -20% |
| Fair | 23x | $410 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $405 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $526 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
NVAX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
NVAX has the edge over UNH on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
UNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NVAX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.08 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.29 | -115% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.35 | -157% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.41 | -115% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.58 | +$3.81 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.89 | +$4.03 |
| Q2 2025 | $2.38 | +$5.02 |
| Q1 2025 | $2.75 | +$5.80 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.23 | +$4.18 |
NVAX has swung to a loss: it lost $0.29 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
UNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.65 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.55 | -8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.58 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.28 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.23 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.17 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.09 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.89 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.51 | -35% |
UNH has the edge over NVAX on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NVAX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $68.3M | -3% |
| Q2 2026 | $56.7M | -76% |
| Q1 2026 | $139.5M | -79% |
| Q4 2025 | $147.1M | +67% |
| Q3 2025 | $70.4M | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $239.2M | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $666.7M | +610% |
| Q4 2024 | $88.3M | -70% |
NVAX's revenue has slid since its 2022 peak: $68M last quarter, down 3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -46% | +207 points |
| Q2 2026 | -97% | -139 points |
| Q1 2026 | -11% | -88 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.7% | +158 points |
| Q3 2025 | -253% | -94 points |
| Q2 2025 | 42% | +3.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 77% | +232 points |
| Q4 2024 | -148% | -85 points |
NVAX's operating margin was −46% last quarter, up 207 points from the same quarter a year ago.
UNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.7B | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $109.6B | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.8B | +6.8% |
UNH has the edge over NVAX on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | -7.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.4 points |
UNH has the edge over NVAX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NVAX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$95.3M | -190% |
| Q2 2026 | -$73.4M | +$54.3M |
| Q1 2026 | -$33.7M | +$153M |
| Q4 2025 | -$41.6M | +$133.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $105.8M | +$252M |
| Q2 2025 | -$127.7M | -141% |
| Q1 2025 | -$186.7M | -$96.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$175.1M | +$10.5M |
NVAX has burned cash in most quarters: −$244M over the past year, against −$384M the year before.
UNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.3B | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.1B | +79% |
| Q4 2025 | $160M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +1037% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +$7.6B |
UNH has the edge over NVAX on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
NVAX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +350K shares |
| 1 year | +1.6% | +2.6M shares |
| 3 years | +58% | +60.9M shares |
| 5 years | +123% | +90.8M shares |
| Available history | +584% | +141M shares |
NVAX has 165M diluted shares, up 1.6% from a year ago.
UNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -34M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -53M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -64M shares |
UNH has the edge over NVAX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
UNH spent $5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
NVAX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
NVAX's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
UNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
UNH's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
NVAX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.0 | Neutral |
NVAX's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
UNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.0 | Neutral |
UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
NVAX PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVAX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 26x | — |
NVAX has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | UNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 26x | 11% below |
| PE % | 47 | 29 | 18 pts above |
UNH is trading at 23x earnings, a 11% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVAX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.6 | 17% below |
| 20 week MA | $9.52 | 8% below |
| 50 week MA | $8.98 | 2.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $8.32 | 5.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $8.39 | 4.4% above |
NVAX has slipped below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, though it's still 4.4% above its 200-week average.
UNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $394.2 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $400.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $361.2 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $376.0 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $446.6 | 9.3% below |
UNH has the edge over NVAX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVAX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $3.99 | $129.3 | +3142% |
| 2021 | $129.3 | $177.3 | +37% |
| 2022 | $177.3 | $9.66 | -95% |
| 2023 | $9.66 | $4.80 | -50% |
| 2024 | $4.80 | $8.28 | +72% |
| 2025 | $8.28 | $6.83 | -18% |
| 2026 YTD | $6.83 | $8.76 | +28% |
NVAX has the edge over UNH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
UNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.0 | $340.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $340.8 | $495.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $495.4 | $531.3 | +7.3% |
| 2023 | $531.3 | $526.5 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $526.5 | $510.0 | -3.1% |
| 2025 | $510.0 | $331.8 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.8 | $405.1 | +22% |
UNH has finished three years in a row lower, and it's up 22% so far in 2026.