NVAX
Novavax, Inc.
NVAX offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has a slight edge over NVAX overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
NVAX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
NVAX's balance sheet is currently strong, but its revenue, profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
NVAX PE Valuation
NVAX has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 116x next year's earnings.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO's PE is 10x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
NVAX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
NVAX has the edge over NVO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NVAX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.08 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.29 | -115% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.35 | -157% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.41 | -115% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.58 | +$3.81 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.89 | +$4.03 |
| Q2 2025 | $2.38 | +$5.02 |
| Q1 2025 | $2.75 | +$5.80 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.23 | +$4.18 |
NVAX has swung to a loss: it lost $0.29 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over NVAX on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NVAX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $68.3M | -3% |
| Q2 2026 | $56.7M | -76% |
| Q1 2026 | $139.5M | -79% |
| Q4 2025 | $147.1M | +67% |
| Q3 2025 | $70.4M | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $239.2M | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $666.7M | +610% |
| Q4 2024 | $88.3M | -70% |
NVAX's revenue has slid since its 2022 peak: $68M last quarter, down 3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -46% | +207 points |
| Q2 2026 | -97% | -139 points |
| Q1 2026 | -11% | -88 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.7% | +158 points |
| Q3 2025 | -253% | -94 points |
| Q2 2025 | 42% | +3.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 77% | +232 points |
| Q4 2024 | -148% | -85 points |
NVAX's operating margin was −46% last quarter, up 207 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO has the edge over NVAX on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over NVAX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NVAX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$95.3M | -190% |
| Q2 2026 | -$73.4M | +$54.3M |
| Q1 2026 | -$33.7M | +$153M |
| Q4 2025 | -$41.6M | +$133.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $105.8M | +$252M |
| Q2 2025 | -$127.7M | -141% |
| Q1 2025 | -$186.7M | -$96.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$175.1M | +$10.5M |
NVAX has burned cash in most quarters: −$244M over the past year, against −$384M the year before.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO has the edge over NVAX on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
NVAX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +350K shares |
| 1 year | +1.6% | +2.6M shares |
| 3 years | +58% | +60.9M shares |
| 5 years | +123% | +90.8M shares |
| Available history | +584% | +141M shares |
NVAX has 165M diluted shares, up 1.6% from a year ago.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has the edge over NVAX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
NVAX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
NVAX's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
NVAX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.0 | Neutral |
NVAX's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
NVAX PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVAX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 26x | — |
NVAX has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO is trading at 10x earnings, a 60% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x, though its earnings don't support one.
NVAX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.6 | 17% below |
| 20 week MA | $9.52 | 8% below |
| 50 week MA | $8.98 | 2.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $8.32 | 5.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $8.39 | 4.4% above |
NVAX has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
NVAX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $3.99 | $129.3 | +3142% |
| 2021 | $129.3 | $177.3 | +37% |
| 2022 | $177.3 | $9.66 | -95% |
| 2023 | $9.66 | $4.80 | -50% |
| 2024 | $4.80 | $8.28 | +72% |
| 2025 | $8.28 | $6.83 | -18% |
| 2026 YTD | $6.83 | $8.76 | +28% |
NVAX has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.