NTRS

Northern Trust Corporation

68
Fundamentals76/ 100
Valuation56/ 100
Upside potential74/ 100
Risk potential9/ 100

NTRS's fundamentals are strong: its operating margin rose 5 points to 34% and revenue grew 18%. At 14x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 15x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth.

NTRS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

NTRS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NTRS.

NTRS PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.6x11x17x22x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.6x11x17x22x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap12x$155-13%
Current14x$178—
Forward14x$178—
Fair15x$188+6%
Expensive18x$235+32%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

NTRS's PE is in its fair range at 13.9x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 14.1x.

NTRS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Stable
Strong growth
Stable
Strongly improving
Limited
High

Analysts expect NTRS's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.

NTRS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+25%$222.03
Downside-9%$162.08

Calculated from the latest close: $177.67 on Nov 12.

NTRS's one-year upside scenario is about three times its downside: +25% against −8.8%.

NTRS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.08Q1 2024: $4.53Q2 2024: $7.31Q3 2024: $8.04Q4 2024: $9.77Q1 2025: $10.71Q2 2025: $8.50Q3 2025: $8.57Q4 2025: $8.74Q1 2026: $9.55Q2 2026: $11.65Q3 2026: $12.76Forward: $12.59
Q4 2023: $5.08Q1 2024: $4.53Q2 2024: $7.31Q3 2024: $8.04Q4 2024: $9.77Q1 2025: $10.71Q2 2025: $8.50Q3 2025: $8.57Q4 2025: $8.74Q1 2026: $9.55Q2 2026: $11.65Q3 2026: $12.76Forward: $12.59
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$12.59-1.3%
Q3 2026$12.76+49%
Q2 2026$11.65+37%
Q1 2026$9.55-11%
Q4 2025$8.74-11%
Q3 2025$8.57+6.6%
Q2 2025$8.50+16%
Q1 2025$10.71+136%
Q4 2024$9.77+92%

NTRS earned $12.76 per share over the past year, up 49% from the year before.

NTRS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $1.5BQ1 2024: $1.6BQ2 2024: $2.7BQ3 2024: $2BQ4 2024: $2BQ1 2025: $1.9BQ2 2025: $2BQ3 2025: $2BQ4 2025: $2.1BQ1 2026: $2.2BQ2 2026: $2.7BQ3 2026: $2.3B
Q4 2023: $1.5BQ1 2024: $1.6BQ2 2024: $2.7BQ3 2024: $2BQ4 2024: $2BQ1 2025: $1.9BQ2 2025: $2BQ3 2025: $2BQ4 2025: $2.1BQ1 2026: $2.2BQ2 2026: $2.7BQ3 2026: $2.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$2.3B+13%
Q2 2026$2.7B+35%
Q1 2026$2.2B+14%
Q4 2025$2.1B+8.3%
Q3 2025$2B+2.9%
Q2 2025$2B-26%
Q1 2025$1.9B+18%
Q4 2024$2B+27%

NTRS's revenue is recovering but still below its 2024 peak: $2.3B last quarter, up 13% from the same quarter a year ago.

NTRS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $2.7BQ1 2024: −$1.5BQ2 2024: $3BQ3 2024: $585MQ4 2024: −$2.7BQ1 2025: $2.7BQ2 2025: $1.9BQ3 2025: $509MQ4 2025: $356MQ1 2026: −$329MQ2 2026: −$90MQ3 2026: $1.8B
Q4 2023: $2.7BQ1 2024: −$1.5BQ2 2024: $3BQ3 2024: $585MQ4 2024: −$2.7BQ1 2025: $2.7BQ2 2025: $1.9BQ3 2025: $509MQ4 2025: $356MQ1 2026: −$329MQ2 2026: −$90MQ3 2026: $1.8B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$1.8B+254%
Q2 2026-$90.3M-105%
Q1 2026-$329.4M-112%
Q4 2025$355.6M+$3B
Q3 2025$509.4M-13%
Q2 2025$1.9B-37%
Q1 2025$2.7B+$4.2B
Q4 2024-$2.7B-198%

NTRS's free cash flow was $1.7B over the past year, down 28% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like NTRS.

NTRS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 208MQ1 2024: 205MQ2 2024: 204MQ3 2024: 201MQ4 2024: 202MQ1 2025: 196MQ2 2025: 193MQ3 2025: 191MQ4 2025: 192MQ1 2026: 187MQ2 2026: 185MQ3 2026: 183M
Q4 2023: 208MQ1 2024: 205MQ2 2024: 204MQ3 2024: 201MQ4 2024: 202MQ1 2025: 196MQ2 2025: 193MQ3 2025: 191MQ4 2025: 192MQ1 2026: 187MQ2 2026: 185MQ3 2026: 183M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.9%-1.7M shares
1 year-4.1%-7.8M shares
3 years-12%-24.1M shares
5 years-12%-25.7M shares
Available history-15%-32.4M shares

NTRS has 183M diluted shares, down 4.1% from a year ago, with $1.4B in buybacks over the past year.

NTRS Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 3.2xQ1 2024: 4.1xQ2 2024: 2.6xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.0xQ1 2025: 1.4xQ2 2025: 1.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 2.2xQ1 2026: 1.6xQ2 2026: 1.6xQ3 2026: 1.4x
Q4 2023: 3.2xQ1 2024: 4.1xQ2 2024: 2.6xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.0xQ1 2025: 1.4xQ2 2025: 1.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 2.2xQ1 2026: 1.6xQ2 2026: 1.6xQ3 2026: 1.4x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.4xHealthy
Q2 20261.6xHealthy
Q1 20261.6xHealthy
Q4 20252.2xModerate
Q3 20251.3xHealthy
Q2 20251.0xVery low
Q1 20251.4xHealthy
Q4 20242.0xHealthy

NTRS's net debt is about 1.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like NTRS.

NTRS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI56.4Neutral
Stochastic37.9Neutral

NTRS's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 38 (neutral).

NTRS PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricNTRSSector medianRelative
PE14x13x7% above
PE %426321 pts below

NTRS is trading at 14x earnings, in line with the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

NTRS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$171.13.9% above
20 week MA$178.90.7% below
50 week MA$162.49.4% above
100 week MA$138.628% above
200 week MA$111.260% above

NTRS's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 60% above its 200-week average.

NTRS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$107.0$91.6-14%
2021$91.6$118.2+29%
2022$118.2$88.0-26%
2023$88.0$84.4-4.1%
2024$84.4$103.8+23%
2025$103.8$140.1+35%
2026 YTD$140.1$177.7+27%

NTRS has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 27% so far in 2026.

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