NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation
NSC has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has the edge over NSC overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
NSC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
NSC's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NSC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 18x | $216 | -35% |
| Fair | 22x | $268 | -20% |
| Forward | 23x | $333 | — |
| Current | 28x | $333 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $362 | +8.7% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NSC's PE is in its expensive range at 28x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 23x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NSC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NSC, with profitability improving.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RDW's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
NSC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $14.19 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.93 | -9.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.72 | -21% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.87 | -19% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.75 | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.12 | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.81 | +87% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.65 | +136% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.57 | +44% |
NSC has the edge over RDW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
NSC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.5B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $3B | -1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | +1.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.1B | +2.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $3B | -0.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | -1.6% |
NSC's revenue has picked up after three years of holding roughly level: $3.5B last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 33% | -2.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 32% | -5.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 29% | -9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | -5.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 35% | -17 points |
| Q2 2025 | 38% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 38% | +31 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +11 points |
NSC has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW has the edge over NSC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NSC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $736M | +2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $615M | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | -$38M | -108% |
| Q4 2025 | $334M | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $720M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $602M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $501M | +78% |
| Q4 2024 | $276M | +$456M |
NSC has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
NSC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +200K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +500K shares |
| 3 years | -0.8% | -1.8M shares |
| 5 years | -8.6% | -21.2M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -40.4M shares |
NSC has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $5M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $78M |
| Q2 2025 | $208M |
| Q1 2025 | $248M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
NSC has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
NSC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.9x | Moderate |
NSC's net debt is about 2.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NSC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 52.4 | Neutral |
NSC's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 52 (neutral).
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
NSC PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | NSC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 24x | 16% above |
| PE % | 77 | 58 | 19 pts above |
NSC is trading at 28x earnings, a 16% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NSC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $325.1 | 2.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $330.5 | 0.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $312.9 | 6.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $285.5 | 17% above |
| 200 week MA | $257.8 | 29% above |
NSC has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
NSC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $195.2 | $234.4 | +20% |
| 2021 | $234.4 | $287.5 | +23% |
| 2022 | $287.5 | $247.5 | -14% |
| 2023 | $247.5 | $236.4 | -4.5% |
| 2024 | $236.4 | $235.3 | -0.5% |
| 2025 | $235.3 | $291.0 | +24% |
| 2026 YTD | $291.0 | $333.2 | +15% |
NSC has the edge over RDW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW's yearly returns have swung widely, from +501% in 2024 to −74% in 2022. It's up 12% so far in 2026.