NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.
NRG's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 17x earnings, above its usual 9.9x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
NRG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
NRG's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
NRG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 2.4x | $13.57 | -86% |
| Fair | 9.9x | $56.75 | -42% |
| Forward | 10x | $98.05 | — |
| Current | 17x | $98.05 | — |
| Expensive | 28x | $158 | +62% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NRG's PE is in its fair range at 17x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 10x next year's earnings.
NRG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NRG, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NRG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.49 | +65% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.75 | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.85 | +67% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.92 | -85% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.01 | -20% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.78 | +73% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.30 | -75% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.29 | -10% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.99 | +$6.11 |
NRG's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $5.75 over the past year, against $17.29 in late 2019.
NRG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $9.5B | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.5B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.3B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.8B | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.6B | +5.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.7B | +1.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.8B | +0.2% |
NRG's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $9.5B last quarter, up 24% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | +6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +13 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.2% | -10 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.8% | -10 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.4% | +17 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0% | -21 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | +1.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | +1.7 points |
NRG's operating margin was 11% last quarter, up 6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NRG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $571M | +148% |
| Q2 2026 | $779M | +967% |
| Q1 2026 | -$486M | -176% |
| Q4 2025 | -$175M | -123% |
| Q3 2025 | $230M | +$313M |
| Q2 2025 | $73M | -92% |
| Q1 2025 | $638M | +222% |
| Q4 2024 | $766M | +463% |
NRG still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $689M over the past year.
NRG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | +7.7% | +15M shares |
| 3 years | -9.5% | -22M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -35M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -43M shares |
NRG has 210M diluted shares, up 7.7% from a year ago, despite $1.3B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42M |
| Q2 2026 | $450M |
| Q1 2026 | $481M |
| Q4 2025 | $353M |
| Q3 2025 | $355M |
| Q2 2025 | $289M |
| Q1 2025 | $314M |
| Q4 2024 | $619M |
NRG spent $1.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 16% from the year before.
NRG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 6.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 9.0x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.7x | Moderate |
NRG's net debt is about 5.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.9 years a year ago.
NRG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 20.9 | Neutral |
NRG's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).
NRG PE vs Utilities Sector
| Metric | NRG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 20x | 16% below |
| PE % | 59 | 44 | 15 pts above |
NRG is trading at 17x earnings, a 16% discount to the Utilities sector's median of 20x.
NRG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $97.8 | 0.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $113.4 | 14% below |
| 50 week MA | $136.8 | 28% below |
| 100 week MA | $135.8 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $96.5 | 1.6% above |
NRG's trend is mixed: it's above two of its five weekly moving averages, and 1.6% above its 200-week average.
NRG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $39.2 | $35.1 | -11% |
| 2021 | $35.1 | $42.2 | +20% |
| 2022 | $42.2 | $31.9 | -24% |
| 2023 | $31.9 | $51.7 | +62% |
| 2024 | $51.7 | $92.0 | +78% |
| 2025 | $92.0 | $160.9 | +75% |
| 2026 YTD | $160.9 | $98.1 | -39% |
NRG is down 39% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.