NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has the edge over XPOF overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
XPOF
Xponential Fitness, Inc.
XPOF offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
XPOF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Weak | |
| Weak |
XPOF's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are weak.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE's PE is in its cheap range at 18x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 30x, in its fair range.
XPOF PE Valuation
XPOF has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
XPOF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
XPOF has the edge over NKE on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE has the edge over XPOF on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
XPOF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.49 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.20 | +$0.48 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.48 | +$0.31 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.39 | +$0.68 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.47 | +$0.80 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.68 | -$0.53 |
XPOF is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $1.20 per share over the past year, against $2.27 at its worst in late 2024.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE has the edge over XPOF on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE's operating margin was 8.2% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
XPOF Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.9M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.7M | -1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.2M | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.4M | -7.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.4M | -37% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7M | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.6M | -14% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.6M | +18% |
XPOF's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $3M last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 664% | +514 points |
| Q2 2026 | 352% | -191 points |
| Q1 2026 | 603% | +233 points |
| Q4 2025 | -245% | +1194 points |
| Q3 2025 | 150% | +318 points |
| Q2 2025 | 543% | +612 points |
| Q1 2025 | 370% | +128 points |
| Q4 2024 | -1439% | -1535 points |
XPOF has the edge over NKE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE has the edge over XPOF on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
XPOF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.1M | -50% |
| Q2 2026 | -$4.3M | -533% |
| Q1 2026 | -$22.2M | -514% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.2M | +1077% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.2M | +143% |
| Q2 2025 | $996K | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.4M | +191% |
| Q4 2024 | $864K | +$4.9M |
XPOF's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$12M over the past year.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has the edge over XPOF on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
XPOF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +17% | +7.2M shares |
| 1 year | +40% | +14.2M shares |
| 3 years | +60% | +18.5M shares |
XPOF has 49M diluted shares, up 40% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over XPOF on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
XPOF Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11.5x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 17.1x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 14.0x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 14.4x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 16.4x | High |
| Q2 2024 | 9.1x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 4.2x | High |
| Q4 2023 | 5.1x | High |
XPOF's net debt is about 11 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 16 years a year ago.
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
XPOF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.7 | Neutral |
XPOF's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 36 (neutral).
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
XPOF PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
XPOF has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
XPOF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $4.50 | 2.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $5.11 | 9.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $6.17 | 25% below |
| 100 week MA | $8.00 | 42% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.8 | 64% below |
XPOF has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 64% below its 200-week average.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has the edge over XPOF on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
XPOF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $12.3 | $20.6 | +68% |
| 2022 | $20.6 | $22.9 | +11% |
| 2023 | $22.9 | $12.9 | -44% |
| 2024 | $12.9 | $12.8 | -0.4% |
| 2025 | $12.8 | $8.74 | -32% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.74 | $4.63 | -47% |
XPOF has finished three years in a row lower, and it's down 47% so far in 2026.