NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
TRS
TriMas Corporation
TRS has the edge over NKE overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
TRS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
TRS's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its revenue and cash flow are under pressure.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE's PE is in its cheap range at 18x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 30x, in its fair range.
TRS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 1.6x | $37.62 | — |
| Cheap | 12x | $286 | +661% |
| Forward | 19x | $37.62 | — |
| Fair | 21x | $504 | +1238% |
| Expensive | 33x | $795 | +2012% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TRS has the edge over NKE in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TRS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
TRS has the edge over NKE on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
TRS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | -92% |
| Q2 2026 | $24.03 | +2541% |
| Q1 2026 | $24.07 | +3026% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.97 | +403% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.08 | +69% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.91 | -7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.77 | -21% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.59 | -39% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.64 | -48% |
TRS has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE has the edge over TRS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TRS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $174.6M | -36% |
| Q1 2026 | $168.3M | -30% |
| Q4 2025 | $155.5M | -32% |
| Q3 2025 | $269.3M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $274.8M | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $241.7M | +6.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $228.1M | +8.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $229.4M | -2.5% |
TRS has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 6.2% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.1% | -4.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | -16% | -19 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.2% | +2.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.9% | +2.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9% | +3.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3.8% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2024 | 3.6% | -6.5 points |
TRS's operating margin was 6.2% last quarter, down 3.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE has the edge over TRS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
TRS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$45M | -440% |
| Q1 2026 | -$24.6M | -$20.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $36.8M | +204% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.8M | +125% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.2M | +76% |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.8M | +$13.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $12.1M | +6.7% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.2M | -52% |
TRS's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$10M over the past year.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
TRS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3.2% | -1.2M shares |
| 1 year | -12% | -4.7M shares |
| 3 years | -13% | -5.4M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -7.1M shares |
| Available history | -20% | -9.2M shares |
TRS has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $18.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $54.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $101.1M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $1.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $460,000 |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | $2.4M |
TRS spent $175M buying back its own shares over the past year, more than ten times what it spent the year before.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
TRS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -14.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -11.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 4.5x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q3 2024 | 3.6x | Elevated |
TRS has the edge over NKE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
TRS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
TRS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
TRS PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TRS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 1.6x | 18x | 91% below |
| PE % | 0 | 47 | 47 pts below |
TRS has the edge over NKE on valuation relative to its sector.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
TRS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $38.6 | 2.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $39.4 | 4.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $38.2 | 1.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $33.6 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $29.9 | 26% above |
TRS has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.
TRS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $31.2 | $32.0 | +2.6% |
| 2021 | $32.0 | $34.8 | +8.5% |
| 2022 | $34.8 | $27.8 | -20% |
| 2023 | $27.8 | $25.3 | -8.7% |
| 2024 | $25.3 | $24.6 | -3% |
| 2025 | $24.6 | $36.1 | +47% |
| 2026 YTD | $36.1 | $37.6 | +4.1% |
TRS has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.