NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has the edge over SW overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
SW
Smurfit Westrock Plc
SW has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
SW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
SW's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over SW in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
SW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9x | $7.99 | -82% |
| Forward | 15x | $43.18 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $14.37 | -67% |
| Expensive | 21x | $19.12 | -56% |
| Current | 49x | $43.18 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SW's PE is in its expensive range at 49x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
SW has the edge over NKE on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 7.2% for NKE versus SW down 54%.
SW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.81 | +216% |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.93 | -147% |
| Q2 2024 | -$0.65 | -116% |
| Q1 2024 | $2.95 | -31% |
| Q4 2023 | $3.31 | -25% |
| Q3 2023 | $4.07 | -6.4% |
| Q2 2023 | $4.11 | -0.2% |
| Q1 2023 | $4.29 | +20% |
| Q4 2022 | $4.40 | +46% |
SW has returned to profit: it earned $0.89 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE has the edge over SW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +2% |
| Q2 2026 | $8B | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.7B | +0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.6B | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $8B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.7B | +154% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.5B | +162% |
| Q3 2024 | $7.7B | +150% |
SW has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6% | -0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9% | +0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.3% | -3.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.1% | -0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.6% | +5.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2% | N/A |
| Q1 2025 | 7.2% | -3.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3% | -1 points |
SW's operating margin was 6% last quarter, down 0.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
SW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $360M | -31% |
| Q2 2026 | $300M | -2.3% |
| Q1 2026 | -$420M | -$178M |
| Q4 2025 | $612M | +189% |
| Q2 2025 | $307M | +$307M |
| Q1 2025 | -$242M | -$57.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $212M | -61% |
| Q2 2024 | $0 | -100% |
SW generated $852M in free cash flow over the past year, up 6.5% from the year before.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
SW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +2M shares |
| 3 years | +103% | +268M shares |
| 5 years | +105% | +270M shares |
| Available history | +121% | +289M shares |
SW has 528M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | $30M |
| Q4 2023 | $1.1M |
| Q3 2023 | $382,597 |
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over SW on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
SW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2023 | 1.7x | Healthy |
SW's net debt is about 3.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
SW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 36.9 | Neutral |
SW's weekly RSI is 48 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE has the edge over SW on valuation relative to its sector.
SW PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | SW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 49x | 18x | 169% above |
| PE % | 92 | 47 | 45 pts above |
SW is trading at 49x earnings, a 169% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
SW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $43.0 | 0.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $45.1 | 4.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $43.0 | 0.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $44.0 | 1.9% below |
| 200 week MA | $42.3 | 2.2% above |
SW has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.
SW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $42.6 | $44.5 | +4.3% |
| 2021 | $44.5 | $43.0 | -3.3% |
| 2022 | $43.0 | $35.5 | -18% |
| 2023 | $35.5 | $41.5 | +17% |
| 2024 | $41.5 | $54.4 | +31% |
| 2025 | $54.4 | $38.7 | -29% |
| 2026 YTD | $38.7 | $43.2 | +11% |
SW has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.