NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
RCL has the edge over NKE overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
RCL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
RCL's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue and cash flow are stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over RCL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
RCL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $276 | -14% |
| Forward | 16x | $322 | — |
| Fair | 19x | $327 | +1.6% |
| Current | 19x | $322 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $427 | +33% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
RCL's PE is in its fair range at 19x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RCL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
RCL has the edge over NKE on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
RCL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $19.91 | +18% |
| Q3 2026 | $16.89 | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $16.18 | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.39 | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.61 | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $15.12 | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.59 | +47% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +57% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.94 | +73% |
RCL has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE's operating margin was 8.2% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
RCL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.6B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +6.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.5B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.3B | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | +5.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B | +10% |
| Q1 2025 | $4B | +7.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.8B | +13% |
RCL has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 33% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 27% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 26% | +2.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 22% | +5.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 29% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 24% | +3.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 17% | -0.5 points |
RCL has the edge over NKE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
RCL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $937M | +$1.9B |
| Q2 2026 | -$877M | -196% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $116M | -87% |
| Q3 2025 | -$989M | -276% |
| Q2 2025 | $910M | +$1.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +10% |
| Q4 2024 | $915M | +$2.4B |
RCL has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
RCL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -2.2% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -4.9% | -13.9M shares |
| 5 years | +5.2% | +13.3M shares |
| Available history | +28% | +58.1M shares |
RCL has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $199M |
| Q1 2026 | $836M |
| Q4 2025 | $504M |
| Q3 2025 | $414M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $241M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
RCL spent $1.5B buying back its own shares over the past year.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over RCL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
RCL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.5x | Elevated |
RCL's net debt is about 3.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.2 years a year ago.
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
RCL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 83.5 | Overbought |
RCL's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE has the edge over RCL on valuation relative to its sector.
RCL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | RCL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 18x | 5.8% above |
| PE % | 46 | 47 | 1 pt below |
RCL is trading at 19x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
RCL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $289.2 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $288.1 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $287.5 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $279.3 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $201.8 | 60% above |
RCL has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.
RCL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $133.3 | $70.7 | -47% |
| 2021 | $70.7 | $79.5 | +13% |
| 2022 | $79.5 | $49.8 | -37% |
| 2023 | $49.8 | $129.5 | +160% |
| 2024 | $129.5 | $232.7 | +80% |
| 2025 | $232.7 | $285.7 | +23% |
| 2026 YTD | $285.7 | $322.0 | +13% |
RCL has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.