NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has the edge over PAG overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
PAG
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
PAG has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
PAG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy |
PAG's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over PAG in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
PAG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.1x | $97.13 | -54% |
| Fair | 9.9x | $136 | -36% |
| Expensive | 12x | $168 | -21% |
| Forward | 15x | $213 | — |
| Current | 16x | $213 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PAG's PE is in its expensive range at 16x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 15x.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PAG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect PAG's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
PAG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.91 | +1.4% |
| Q3 2026 | $13.71 | -3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.58 | -5.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.40 | -5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.50 | -1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.20 | +8.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.36 | +5.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.19 | -1.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.74 | -11% |
PAG has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE has the edge over PAG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PAG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.4B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.5B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.9B | +3.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.8B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.7B | +1.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.7B | -0.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.6B | +2.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.7B | +6.2% |
PAG has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.6% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.1% | -0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.5% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4.2% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.3% | +0.7 points |
PAG's operating margin was 3.6% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
PAG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $223.3M | -26% |
| Q2 2026 | $131.8M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $152.4M | -26% |
| Q4 2025 | $25.1M | -81% |
| Q3 2025 | $300.4M | +58% |
| Q2 2025 | $118.9M | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $206.1M | -42% |
| Q4 2024 | $131.6M | +$163.4M |
PAG has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
PAG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -60K shares |
| 1 year | -0.5% | -356K shares |
| 3 years | -2.4% | -1.6M shares |
| 5 years | -17% | -13.8M shares |
| Available history | -20% | -16.8M shares |
PAG has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $26.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $40.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $7.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $71.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $39.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $600,000 |
PAG spent $66M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 44% from the year before.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over PAG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PAG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.2x | Healthy |
PAG's net debt is about 1.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from a year a year ago.
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
PAG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 66.3 | Neutral |
PAG's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
PAG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | PAG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 18x | 14% below |
| PE % | 97 | 47 | 50 pts above |
PAG has the edge over NKE on valuation relative to its sector.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
PAG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $209.0 | 2% above |
| 20 week MA | $210.1 | 1.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $182.0 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $173.6 | 23% above |
| 200 week MA | $163.6 | 30% above |
PAG has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.
PAG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $50.7 | $57.7 | +14% |
| 2021 | $57.7 | $102.9 | +78% |
| 2022 | $102.9 | $112.3 | +9.2% |
| 2023 | $112.3 | $160.5 | +43% |
| 2024 | $160.5 | $155.1 | -3.3% |
| 2025 | $155.1 | $165.6 | +6.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $165.6 | $213.3 | +29% |
PAG has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.