NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO has the edge over XPOF overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
XPOF
Xponential Fitness, Inc.
XPOF offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
XPOF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Weak | |
| Weak |
XPOF's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are weak.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
XPOF PE Valuation
XPOF has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NIO has the edge over XPOF on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
XPOF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect XPOF's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
XPOF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.49 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.20 | +$0.48 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.48 | +$0.31 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.39 | +$0.68 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.47 | +$0.80 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.68 | -$0.53 |
XPOF is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $1.20 per share over the past year, against $2.27 at its worst in late 2024.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO has the edge over XPOF on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
XPOF Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.9M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.7M | -1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.2M | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.4M | -7.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.4M | -37% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7M | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.6M | -14% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.6M | +18% |
XPOF's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $3M last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 664% | +514 points |
| Q2 2026 | 352% | -191 points |
| Q1 2026 | 603% | +233 points |
| Q4 2025 | -245% | +1194 points |
| Q3 2025 | 150% | +318 points |
| Q2 2025 | 543% | +612 points |
| Q1 2025 | 370% | +128 points |
| Q4 2024 | -1439% | -1535 points |
XPOF has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.
XPOF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.1M | -50% |
| Q2 2026 | -$4.3M | -533% |
| Q1 2026 | -$22.2M | -514% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.2M | +1077% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.2M | +143% |
| Q2 2025 | $996K | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.4M | +191% |
| Q4 2024 | $864K | +$4.9M |
XPOF has the edge over NIO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has the edge over XPOF on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
XPOF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +17% | +7.2M shares |
| 1 year | +40% | +14.2M shares |
| 3 years | +60% | +18.5M shares |
XPOF has 49M diluted shares, up 40% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
XPOF Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11.5x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 17.1x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 14.0x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 14.4x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 16.4x | High |
| Q2 2024 | 9.1x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 4.2x | High |
| Q4 2023 | 5.1x | High |
XPOF's net debt is about 11 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 16 years a year ago.
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
XPOF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.7 | Neutral |
XPOF's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 36 (neutral).
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
XPOF PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
XPOF has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
XPOF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $4.50 | 2.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $5.11 | 9.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $6.17 | 25% below |
| 100 week MA | $8.00 | 42% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.8 | 64% below |
XPOF has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO has the edge over XPOF on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
XPOF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $12.3 | $20.6 | +68% |
| 2022 | $20.6 | $22.9 | +11% |
| 2023 | $22.9 | $12.9 | -44% |
| 2024 | $12.9 | $12.8 | -0.4% |
| 2025 | $12.8 | $8.74 | -32% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.74 | $4.63 | -47% |
XPOF has finished three years in a row lower, and it's down 47% so far in 2026.