NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO has the edge over PAG overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
PAG
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
PAG has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PAG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy |
PAG's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PAG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.1x | $97.13 | -54% |
| Fair | 9.9x | $136 | -36% |
| Expensive | 12x | $168 | -21% |
| Forward | 15x | $213 | — |
| Current | 16x | $213 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PAG's PE is in its expensive range at 16x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 15x.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NIO has the edge over PAG on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.
PAG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect PAG's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
PAG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.91 | +1.4% |
| Q3 2026 | $13.71 | -3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.58 | -5.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.40 | -5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.50 | -1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.20 | +8.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.36 | +5.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.19 | -1.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.74 | -11% |
PAG has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO has the edge over PAG on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
PAG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.4B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.5B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.9B | +3.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.8B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.7B | +1.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.7B | -0.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.6B | +2.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.7B | +6.2% |
PAG's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $8.4B last quarter, up 9.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.6% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.1% | -0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.5% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4.2% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.3% | +0.7 points |
PAG has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO has the edge over PAG on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
PAG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $223.3M | -26% |
| Q2 2026 | $131.8M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $152.4M | -26% |
| Q4 2025 | $25.1M | -81% |
| Q3 2025 | $300.4M | +58% |
| Q2 2025 | $118.9M | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $206.1M | -42% |
| Q4 2024 | $131.6M | +$163.4M |
PAG still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2021 peak: $533M over the past year.
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
PAG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -60K shares |
| 1 year | -0.5% | -356K shares |
| 3 years | -2.4% | -1.6M shares |
| 5 years | -17% | -13.8M shares |
| Available history | -20% | -16.8M shares |
PAG has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $26.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $40.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $7.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $71.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $39.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $600,000 |
PAG spent $66M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 44% from the year before.
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PAG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.2x | Healthy |
PAG's net debt is about 1.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from a year a year ago.
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
PAG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 66.3 | Neutral |
PAG's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PAG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | PAG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 18x | 14% below |
| PE % | 97 | 47 | 50 pts above |
PAG is trading at 16x earnings, a 14% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
PAG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $209.0 | 2% above |
| 20 week MA | $210.1 | 1.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $182.0 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $173.6 | 23% above |
| 200 week MA | $163.6 | 30% above |
PAG has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.
PAG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $50.7 | $57.7 | +14% |
| 2021 | $57.7 | $102.9 | +78% |
| 2022 | $102.9 | $112.3 | +9.2% |
| 2023 | $112.3 | $160.5 | +43% |
| 2024 | $160.5 | $155.1 | -3.3% |
| 2025 | $155.1 | $165.6 | +6.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $165.6 | $213.3 | +29% |
PAG has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.