NFLX

Netflix, Inc.

79
Fundamentals79/ 100
Valuation91/ 100
Upside potential86/ 100
Risk potential9/ 100

NFLX has the edge over NXST overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.

NXST

Nexstar Media Group, Inc.

52
Fundamentals67/ 100
Valuation15/ 100
Upside potential76/ 100
Risk potential13/ 100

NXST trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

NFLX Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Strong

NFLX's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

NXST Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Healthy
Strong
Weak

NXST's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is weak.

NFLX PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE29x59x88x117x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE29x59x88x117x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward17x$62.69—
Current18x$62.69—
Cheap27x$94.95+51%
Fair47x$161+157%
Expensive81x$281+348%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

NFLX has the edge over NXST in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

NXST PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE22x44x65x87x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE22x44x65x87x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap7.7x$84.87-59%
Forward7.9x$206—
Fair9.5x$105-49%
Expensive17x$182-11%
Current19x$206—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

NXST's PE is in its expensive range at 19x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 7.9x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

NFLX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Stable
Strong growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Moderate
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NFLX, with profitability improving.

NXST Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Growth
Strong growth
Weakening
Limited
High

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NXST, but weaker profitability.

NFLX Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+57%$98.20
Downside-9%$56.77

Calculated from the latest close: $62.69 on Nov 12.

NFLX has a better modeled risk to reward balance than NXST, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

NXST Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+41%$290.19
Downside-13%$178.81

Calculated from the latest close: $205.97 on Nov 12.

NXST trails NFLX on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

NFLX Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $1.20Q1 2024: $1.44Q2 2024: $1.60Q3 2024: $1.77Q4 2024: $1.98Q1 2025: $2.12Q2 2025: $2.35Q3 2025: $2.39Q4 2025: $2.53Q1 2026: $3.10Q2 2026: $3.18Q3 2026: $3.46Forward: $3.58
Q4 2023: $1.20Q1 2024: $1.44Q2 2024: $1.60Q3 2024: $1.77Q4 2024: $1.98Q1 2025: $2.12Q2 2025: $2.35Q3 2025: $2.39Q4 2025: $2.53Q1 2026: $3.10Q2 2026: $3.18Q3 2026: $3.46Forward: $3.58
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$3.58+3.5%
Q3 2026$3.46+45%
Q2 2026$3.18+35%
Q1 2026$3.10+46%
Q4 2025$2.53+28%
Q3 2025$2.39+35%
Q2 2025$2.35+47%
Q1 2025$2.12+47%
Q4 2024$1.98+65%

NFLX has the edge over NXST on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

NXST Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $9.64Q1 2024: $11.83Q2 2024: $12.73Q3 2024: $17.30Q4 2024: $21.41Q1 2025: $19.62Q2 2025: $19.14Q3 2025: $16.01Q4 2025: $3.00Q1 2026: $4.72Q2 2026: $5.27Q3 2026: $11.05Forward: $26.18
Q4 2023: $9.64Q1 2024: $11.83Q2 2024: $12.73Q3 2024: $17.30Q4 2024: $21.41Q1 2025: $19.62Q2 2025: $19.14Q3 2025: $16.01Q4 2025: $3.00Q1 2026: $4.72Q2 2026: $5.27Q3 2026: $11.05Forward: $26.18
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$26.18+137%
Q3 2026$11.05-31%
Q2 2026$5.27-72%
Q1 2026$4.72-76%
Q4 2025$3.00-86%
Q3 2025$16.01-7.5%
Q2 2025$19.14+50%
Q1 2025$19.62+66%
Q4 2024$21.41+122%

NXST's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $11.05 over the past year, against $25.00 in late 2022.

NFLX Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $8.8BQ1 2024: $9.4BQ2 2024: $9.6BQ3 2024: $9.8BQ4 2024: $10.2BQ1 2025: $10.5BQ2 2025: $11.1BQ3 2025: $11.5BQ4 2025: $12.1BQ1 2026: $12.2BQ2 2026: $12.6BQ3 2026: $12.9B
Q4 2023: $8.8BQ1 2024: $9.4BQ2 2024: $9.6BQ3 2024: $9.8BQ4 2024: $10.2BQ1 2025: $10.5BQ2 2025: $11.1BQ3 2025: $11.5BQ4 2025: $12.1BQ1 2026: $12.2BQ2 2026: $12.6BQ3 2026: $12.9B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$12.9B+12%
Q2 2026$12.6B+13%
Q1 2026$12.2B+16%
Q4 2025$12.1B+18%
Q3 2025$11.5B+17%
Q2 2025$11.1B+16%
Q1 2025$10.5B+13%
Q4 2024$10.2B+16%

NFLX has the edge over NXST on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

NXST Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $1.3BQ1 2024: $1.3BQ2 2024: $1.3BQ3 2024: $1.4BQ4 2024: $1.5BQ1 2025: $1.2BQ2 2025: $1.2BQ3 2025: $1.2BQ4 2025: $1.3BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: $2BQ3 2026: $2.1B
Q4 2023: $1.3BQ1 2024: $1.3BQ2 2024: $1.3BQ3 2024: $1.4BQ4 2024: $1.5BQ1 2025: $1.2BQ2 2025: $1.2BQ3 2025: $1.2BQ4 2025: $1.3BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: $2BQ3 2026: $2.1B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$2.1B+78%
Q2 2026$2B+62%
Q1 2026$1.4B+13%
Q4 2025$1.3B-13%
Q3 2025$1.2B-12%
Q2 2025$1.2B-3.2%
Q1 2025$1.2B-3.9%
Q4 2024$1.5B+14%

NXST's revenue has picked up after four years of holding roughly level: $2.1B last quarter, up 78% from the same quarter a year ago.

NFLX Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $1.6BQ1 2024: $2.1BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $2.2BQ4 2024: $1.4BQ1 2025: $2.7BQ2 2025: $2.3BQ3 2025: $2.7BQ4 2025: $1.9BQ1 2026: $5.1BQ2 2026: $1.5BQ3 2026: $2.9B
Q4 2023: $1.6BQ1 2024: $2.1BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $2.2BQ4 2024: $1.4BQ1 2025: $2.7BQ2 2025: $2.3BQ3 2025: $2.7BQ4 2025: $1.9BQ1 2026: $5.1BQ2 2026: $1.5BQ3 2026: $2.9B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$2.9B+8.4%
Q2 2026$1.5B-33%
Q1 2026$5.1B+91%
Q4 2025$1.9B+36%
Q3 2025$2.7B+21%
Q2 2025$2.3B+87%
Q1 2025$2.7B+25%
Q4 2024$1.4B-13%

NFLX generated $11.4B in free cash flow over the past year, up 27% from the year before.

NXST Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $146MQ1 2024: $232MQ2 2024: $139MQ3 2024: $358MQ4 2024: $376MQ1 2025: $302MQ2 2025: $218MQ3 2025: $87MQ4 2025: $136MQ1 2026: $267MQ2 2026: $253MQ3 2026: $634M
Q4 2023: $146MQ1 2024: $232MQ2 2024: $139MQ3 2024: $358MQ4 2024: $376MQ1 2025: $302MQ2 2025: $218MQ3 2025: $87MQ4 2025: $136MQ1 2026: $267MQ2 2026: $253MQ3 2026: $634M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$634M+629%
Q2 2026$253M+16%
Q1 2026$267M-12%
Q4 2025$136M-64%
Q3 2025$87M-76%
Q2 2025$218M+57%
Q1 2025$302M+30%
Q4 2024$376M+158%

NXST's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $1.3B over the past year, up 31% from the year before.

NFLX Total Shares

Q4 2023: 4.5BQ1 2024: 4.4BQ2 2024: 4.4BQ3 2024: 4.4BQ4 2024: 4.4BQ1 2025: 4.4BQ2 2025: 4.3BQ3 2025: 4.3BQ4 2025: 4.3BQ1 2026: 4.3BQ2 2026: 4.3BQ3 2026: 4.2B
Q4 2023: 4.5BQ1 2024: 4.4BQ2 2024: 4.4BQ3 2024: 4.4BQ4 2024: 4.4BQ1 2025: 4.4BQ2 2025: 4.3BQ3 2025: 4.3BQ4 2025: 4.3BQ1 2026: 4.3BQ2 2026: 4.3BQ3 2026: 4.2B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-1.6%-66.2M shares
1 year-3.3%-145M shares
3 years-6.8%-305M shares
5 years-7.8%-354M shares
Available history-7.1%-323M shares

NFLX has the edge over NXST on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

NXST Total Shares

Q4 2023: 36MQ1 2024: 34MQ2 2024: 33MQ3 2024: 32MQ4 2024: 33MQ1 2025: 31MQ2 2025: 31MQ3 2025: 31MQ4 2025: 31MQ1 2026: 31MQ2 2026: 31MQ3 2026: 31M
Q4 2023: 36MQ1 2024: 34MQ2 2024: 33MQ3 2024: 32MQ4 2024: 33MQ1 2025: 31MQ2 2025: 31MQ3 2025: 31MQ4 2025: 31MQ1 2026: 31MQ2 2026: 31MQ3 2026: 31M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.3%+105K shares
1 year+1.2%+364K shares
3 years-12%-4.4M shares
5 years-29%-12.5M shares
Available history-35%-16.9M shares

NXST has 31M diluted shares, up 1.2% from a year ago.

NFLX Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 0.9xQ2 2024: 0.8xQ3 2024: 0.9xQ4 2024: 0.7xQ1 2025: 0.7xQ2 2025: 0.5xQ3 2025: 0.4xQ4 2025: 0.4xQ1 2026: 0.2xQ2 2026: 0.4xQ3 2026: 0.4x
Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 0.9xQ2 2024: 0.8xQ3 2024: 0.9xQ4 2024: 0.7xQ1 2025: 0.7xQ2 2025: 0.5xQ3 2025: 0.4xQ4 2025: 0.4xQ1 2026: 0.2xQ2 2026: 0.4xQ3 2026: 0.4x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.4xVery low
Q2 20260.4xVery low
Q1 20260.2xVery low
Q4 20250.4xVery low
Q3 20250.4xVery low
Q2 20250.5xVery low
Q1 20250.7xVery low
Q4 20240.7xVery low

NFLX has the edge over NXST on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

NXST Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 4.1xQ1 2024: 4.0xQ2 2024: 4.0xQ3 2024: 3.5xQ4 2024: 3.1xQ1 2025: 3.1xQ2 2025: 3.1xQ3 2025: 3.3xQ4 2025: 4.6xQ1 2026: 9.2xQ2 2026: 8.3xQ3 2026: 6.4x
Q4 2023: 4.1xQ1 2024: 4.0xQ2 2024: 4.0xQ3 2024: 3.5xQ4 2024: 3.1xQ1 2025: 3.1xQ2 2025: 3.1xQ3 2025: 3.3xQ4 2025: 4.6xQ1 2026: 9.2xQ2 2026: 8.3xQ3 2026: 6.4x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20266.4xHigh
Q2 20268.3xHigh
Q1 20269.2xHigh
Q4 20254.6xHigh
Q3 20253.3xElevated
Q2 20253.1xElevated
Q1 20253.1xElevated
Q4 20243.1xElevated

NXST's net debt is about 6.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.3 years a year ago.

NFLX Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI33.2Neutral
Stochastic6.0Oversold

NFLX's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 6 (oversold).

NXST Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI62.8Neutral
Stochastic69.7Neutral

NXST's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 70 (neutral).

NFLX PE vs Communication Services Sector

MetricNFLXSector medianRelative
PE18x16x9.8% above
PE %42622 pts below

NFLX has the edge over NXST on valuation relative to its sector.

NXST PE vs Communication Services Sector

MetricNXSTSector medianRelative
PE19x16x13% above
PE %862660 pts above

NXST is trading at 19x earnings, a 13% premium to the Communication Services sector's median of 16x.

NFLX Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$66.65.9% below
20 week MA$71.813% below
50 week MA$82.424% below
100 week MA$96.035% below
200 week MA$74.416% below

NFLX is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 16% below its 200-week average.

NXST Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$172.320% above
20 week MA$177.316% above
50 week MA$193.76.4% above
100 week MA$184.911% above
200 week MA$175.218% above

NXST has the edge over NFLX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

NFLX Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$32.9$51.4+56%
2021$51.4$61.4+19%
2022$61.4$29.5-52%
2023$29.5$48.7+65%
2024$48.7$90.8+86%
2025$90.8$94.5+4.1%
2026 YTD$94.5$62.7-34%

NFLX is down 34% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in five of the previous six years.

NXST Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$118.2$105.0-11%
2021$105.0$152.8+45%
2022$152.8$176.0+15%
2023$176.0$156.8-11%
2024$156.8$159.1+1.5%
2025$159.1$205.0+29%
2026 YTD$205.0$206.0+0.5%

NXST has the edge over NFLX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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