NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
NCLH offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN has a slight edge over NCLH overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
NCLH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
NCLH's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NCLH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 9.7x | $18.06 | — |
| Cheap | 9.9x | $18.49 | +2.4% |
| Forward | 14x | $18.06 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $29.39 | +63% |
| Expensive | 22x | $40.83 | +126% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NCLH's PE is in its cheap range at 9.7x. Analysts expect earnings to fall, which would put today's price at 14x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NCLH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong decline | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NCLH's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
RIVN has the edge over NCLH on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
NCLH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.26 | -32% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.86 | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.65 | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.24 | -30% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.92 | -51% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.39 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.48 | +54% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.76 | +117% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.89 | +385% |
NCLH has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.
NCLH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.9B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.6B | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.3B | +9.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.2B | +6.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.9B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | -2.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | +6.2% |
NCLH's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $2.9B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | -4.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -3.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.3% | -1.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +2.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.4% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | +3.9 points |
NCLH has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN has the edge over NCLH on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
NCLH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$105.4M | +$621.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $144.9M | -62% |
| Q1 2026 | -$625.2M | +$220.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $21.5M | -86% |
| Q3 2025 | -$726.5M | -$531M |
| Q2 2025 | $381.2M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | -$846M | -254% |
| Q4 2024 | $155.8M | +$544.5M |
NCLH has burned cash in most quarters: −$564M over the past year, against −$1B the year before.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
NCLH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -3.5M shares |
| 1 year | -7.1% | -35.3M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.2M shares |
| 5 years | +24% | +90.4M shares |
| Available history | +113% | +244M shares |
NCLH has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | — |
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
NCLH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.7x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.5x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.4x | High |
NCLH's net debt is about 5.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NCLH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 62.4 | Neutral |
NCLH's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 62 (neutral).
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
NCLH PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NCLH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.7x | 18x | 46% below |
| PE % | 15 | 47 | 32 pts below |
NCLH is trading at 9.7x earnings, a 46% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NCLH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $16.1 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $17.1 | 5.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $19.1 | 5.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $20.6 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $19.2 | 6.1% below |
NCLH has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
NCLH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $59.1 | $24.6 | -58% |
| 2021 | $24.6 | $22.7 | -7.6% |
| 2022 | $22.7 | $13.0 | -43% |
| 2023 | $13.0 | $20.0 | +54% |
| 2024 | $20.0 | $25.8 | +28% |
| 2025 | $25.8 | $22.8 | -11% |
| 2026 YTD | $22.8 | $18.1 | -21% |
NCLH has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.